Expected First Occurrence Time of Uncertain Future Events in One-Dimensional Linear Systems

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dc.catalogadoryvc
dc.contributor.authorAcuña Ureta, David Esteban
dc.contributor.authorFuentealba Secul, Diego Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorOrchard, Marcos E.
dc.date.accessioned2025-03-18T20:39:52Z
dc.date.available2025-03-18T20:39:52Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractThe rapid advancement of machine learning algorithms has significantly enhanced tools for monitoring system health, making data-driven approaches predominant in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In contrast, model-based approaches have seen modest progress, as they are often constrained by the need for prior knowledge of specific governing equations, limiting their applicability to a wide range of problems. Recently, rigorous theoretical foundations have been established to extend dynamical systems theory by incorporating prognosis of uncertain events. This article leverages this formal framework to introduce and demonstrate a fundamental mathematical result for one-dimensional linear dynamical systems. The presented theorem offers an analytical expression for approximating the expected time at which an event will first occur in the future. Unlike typical thresholds, this event is triggered by a hazard zone, defined as an uncertain event likelihood function over the system’s state space. Applications of this theorem can be found in implementing real-time prognostic frameworks, where it is crucial to quickly estimate the magnitude of impending failures. Emphasis is placed on minimizing computational burden to facilitate prognostic decision-making.
dc.description.funderOffice of Naval Research Global (ONRG); Grant No. N62909-22-1-2056
dc.description.funderANID/FONDECYT Chile; Grant No. 11231148; ANID/FONDECYT Chile; Grant No. 1210031
dc.description.funderAdvanced Center for Electrical and Electronic Engineering, AC3E; Basal Project No. FB0008
dc.format.extent10 páginas
dc.fuente.origenScopus
dc.identifier.doi10.36001/phmconf.2024.v16i1.4116
dc.identifier.issn2325-0178
dc.identifier.scopusidScopus_ID: 85210264951
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.36001/phmconf.2024.v16i1.4116
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/102788
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Acuña Ureta David Esteban; 0000-0001-9958-2351; 1152387
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Fuentealba Secul Diego Ignacio; S/I; 162120
dc.issue.numero1
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.publisherPrognostics and Health Management Society
dc.relation.ispartofAnnual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.subject.deweyIngenieríaes_ES
dc.titleExpected First Occurrence Time of Uncertain Future Events in One-Dimensional Linear Systems
dc.typecomunicación de congreso
dc.volumen16
sipa.codpersvinculados1152387
sipa.codpersvinculados162120
sipa.trazabilidadScopus;2024-12-08
sipa.trazabilidadORCID;2025-03-03
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