Expected First Occurrence Time of Uncertain Future Events in One-Dimensional Linear Systems

Acuña Ureta, David Esteban; Fuentealba Secul, Diego Ignacio; Orchard, Marcos E.

Expected First Occurrence Time of Uncertain Future Events in One-Dimensional Linear Systems

Date

2024

Authors

Acuña Ureta, David Esteban

Fuentealba Secul, Diego Ignacio

Orchard, Marcos E.

Publisher

Prognostics and Health Management Society

Abstract

The rapid advancement of machine learning algorithms has significantly enhanced tools for monitoring system health, making data-driven approaches predominant in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In contrast, model-based approaches have seen modest progress, as they are often constrained by the need for prior knowledge of specific governing equations, limiting their applicability to a wide range of problems. Recently, rigorous theoretical foundations have been established to extend dynamical systems theory by incorporating prognosis of uncertain events. This article leverages this formal framework to introduce and demonstrate a fundamental mathematical result for one-dimensional linear dynamical systems. The presented theorem offers an analytical expression for approximating the expected time at which an event will first occur in the future. Unlike typical thresholds, this event is triggered by a hazard zone, defined as an uncertain event likelihood function over the system’s state space. Applications of this theorem can be found in implementing real-time prognostic frameworks, where it is crucial to quickly estimate the magnitude of impending failures. Emphasis is placed on minimizing computational burden to facilitate prognostic decision-making.