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- ItemOil Price Shock Pass-Through, Trade Fragmentation and the Business Cycle(2025) Obach Alvarado, Agustín José; Turén, Javier; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de EconomíaEste trabajo investiga cómo la fragmentación del comercio global afecta la transmisión de los shocks del precio del petróleo hacia los precios al productor y al consumidor en Chile. Utilizando un enfoque de Local Projections con medidas externas de shocks petroleros y variables instrumentales, encuentro que el traspaso de los shocks del precio del petróleo aumenta significativamente durante episodios de fragmentación global, particularmente en el caso de aumentos en el precio del petróleo. Si bien esta dependencia del estado es cualitativamente similar a la observada durante las recesiones, la importancia cuantitativa de la fragmentación comercial es mucho mayor. Estos resultados sugieren que el aumento de la fragmentación global amplifica el impacto inflacionario de los shocks petroleros en los mercados emergentes.
- ItemPrice stabilization & solar plant adoption: evidence from renewable energy transition in Chile(2025) Bermúdez Sánchez, Jose Carlo; Montero Ayala, Juan Pablo; González Lira, Andrés; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de EconomíaPrice stabilization policies have been a key driver of solar power plant adoption amid the ongoing renewable energy transition. This paper studies a policy introduced in Chile that allows generation units with an installed capacity below 9 MWs to opt for selling their electricity at the spot market price or a stabilized price. First, I document that the policy has shaped the size of entrants: there is a remarkable bunching of solar plants around the threshold. Second, I estimate a nested-logit model of solar plant adoption. Counterfactual analysis suggests that, in the absence of the price stabilization policy, 47.5% of the solar capacity would not have been installed at all. Finally, I examine the environmental implications of the policy in terms of thermal generation abatement and estimate an implicit price of 206 USD/ton CO2, above prices observed in cape-and-trade systems nowadays. A geographically targeted design would improve its environmental efficiency at a lower cost.
- ItemCertifying More Than Quality: An Econometric Analysis of Incentives in Chile’s Accreditation Process(2025) Osorio Fontalva, Tomas Andres; Fleitas Perla, Sebastian Excequiel; Artiles Gonzalez, Miriam; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de EconomíaCredible third-party certification plays a pivotal role in markets plagued by information asymmetries. However, its design faces a fundamental dilemma: while the certifier must signal quality truthfully, it may also be exposed to incentives—political, commercial, or relational—that bias its judgments. Economic theory predicts that, in the absence of strong governance and transparency, certification may shift from protecting consumers to serving the interests of certifiers or powerful stakeholders. This thesis contributes to that literature by exploiting a natural experiment: Chile’s 2018 reform, which expanded government oversight over the Comisión Nacional de Acreditación (CNA). Using a public 2014--2024 panel of programs, municipal electoral data, and commissioner biographies, I test whether the probability of a program being accredited is associated with political alignment or prior ties between commissioners and institutions. The results show no partisan bias but reveal a modest network effect, suggesting that while Chile’s accreditation regime is largely resilient to capture, relational influence still plays a role at the margin.
- ItemEconomía Gig en Chile: modelando la respuesta de conductores y repartidores a la Ley 21.431(2025) Montoya Seminario, Leonardo Antony Luis; Janiak, Alexandre; Valenzuela Lillo, Luis; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de EconomíaCon micro-datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Empleo (2020-24) y un contraste pre-post, muestro que el anuncio de la Ley 21 431 redujo en 40% el número de repartidores de comida en tres meses, mientras el empleo de conductores de ride-hailing apenas varió y pronto retomó su tendencia. Para explicar esta divergencia calibro, con momentos ENE-ESI, un modelo de ciclo de vida con agentes heterogéneos y capital durable que integra decisiones discretas y continuas de ocupación, consumo y reposición vehicular. Tres canales son decisivos: (i) el costo hundido del automóvil ancla a los conductores; (ii) un bono de ocio asociado a la flexibilidad horaria sostiene a los repartidores pero no compensa las nuevas fricciones documentales; y (iii) la mayor elasticidad salario–vehículo amplifica la incidencia fiscal sobre los ingresos netos de los conductores. El modelo reproduce la caída de la permanencia (de 84,6% a 71,5% en conducción y de 84,7% a 55,9% en reparto) y muestra que un impuesto ad-valorem formaliza sobre todo a conductores, mientras un costo fijo de registro expulsa repartidores. El trabajo provee la primera cuantificación estructural de estos efectos en Chile y subraya que una regulación no diferenciada por intensidad de capital levanta barreras de entrada regresivas.
- ItemDiffusion of agricultural technology through social and economic networks: evidence from Nicaragua(2024) Araya Mertz, Agustín; Celhay, Pablo; Lafortune, Jeanne; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de EconomíaThis paper examines how social networks influence agricultural technology diffusion among participantsin the PAIPSAN-CCN program in Nicaragua. I leverage random variation in program participation at both community and household levels combined with detailed social network mapping to identify causal effects of network exposure on adoption patterns. The findings demonstrate three key patterns: (1) threshold effects where three or more treated connections generate substantials pillovers while fewer connections show limited impact, (2) heterogeneous effects where network connections benefit untreated households in basic production but treated households in complex technologies, and (3) stronger effects in the post-subsidy period, suggesting social learning requirestime. These findings indicate that agricultural programs could enhance impact by targeting clusters of connected farmers and that short-term evaluations may underestimate total program benefits.