Uncertainty quantification of four phenomenological hysteretic timber models
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Date
2025
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Abstract
This article evaluates the uncertainty associated with four phenomenological-based hysteretic timber models from the literature: SAWS/MSTEW, DowelType, modified Richard-Abbott, and ASPID. These models can simulate various timber connections and assemblies, addressing behaviors such as pinching, symmetry and asymmetry, strength and stiffness degradation, and low-cycle fatigue. The models were validated against four experimental benchmark timber tests using an optimized parameter identification process for all cases. The study compared the strength capacity, peak displacement, and energy dissipation. Furthermore, three goodness-of-fit metrics were assessed for the force and energy dissipation histories: Normalized Root Mean Square (NRMS) error, Normalized Mean Absolute (NMA) error, and the coefficient of determination R2. Numerical results indicated that all models, except the SAWS model, achieved good strength capacity and total dissipated energy accuracy, with errors of less than 7%. The models also demonstrated a good fit over time, with NRMS and NMA errors of less than 8.54% for the force history and 4.4% for the dissipated energy history, and R2 values that exceeded 83.11% and 97.9% for force and dissipated energy history, respectively. Therefore, in almost all models, the energy dissipation history fits better than the force one.
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Keywords
Benchmark timber tests, Epistemic uncertainty, Hysteretic timber model, Parameter identification, Phenomenological-based model