Present-day and future climate over central and South America according to CMIP5/CMIP6 models

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dc.contributor.authorOrtega, Geusep
dc.contributor.authorArias, Paola A.
dc.contributor.authorVillegas, Juan Camilo
dc.contributor.authorMarquet, Pablo A.
dc.contributor.authorNobre, Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:18:36Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:18:36Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractIn tropical regions, particularly in Central and South America (CSA), the projections of climate seasonality under climate change are still uncertain. This is especially true for ecologically-relevant variables such as precipitation and temperature. However, assessments of model-based projections of seasonal climate for this region are scarce. We analyzed the simulation of seasonal precipitation and air surface temperature in CSA and six sub-regions within from 49 models included in the Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and 33 models from CMIP6. In general, continental patterns and seasonality of both variables are moderately well resembled, while most models show systematic biases over the oceans, producing unrealistic spatial patterns. To quantify how well CMIP5/CMIP6 models simulate these variables, we used Taylor diagrams with respect to TRMM for precipitation and ERA5 for temperature. Precipitation shows the largest spread among models. Conversely, temperature shows a better simulation. CMIP5/CMIP6 models exhibit a better performance simulating both variables during December-January-February and March-April-May than during the other seasons. This is partly due to the reduced model biases in representing the Intertropical Convergence Zone during these two seasons. In general, biases are reduced in the CMIP6 models with respect to CMIP5. Regarding regional evaluations, precipitation patterns for Mesoamerica, Cerrado and Chaco regions are better reproduced compared to TRMM, while the annual cycles for the Andes hotspot, Central Chile and Guianas are not well simulated, mainly during their wet seasons. However, these biases are reduced in CMIP6 models. In regard to precipitation projections, models only agree over most of the regions with decreasing precipitation. Conversely, temperature exhibits a general consensus on persistent warming even during the historical period, with an average increase of 6 degrees C by the end of the century, according to the CMIP6 models.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/joc.7221
dc.identifier.eissn1097-0088
dc.identifier.issn0899-8418
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7221
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/94573
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000662476400001
dc.issue.numero15
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final6735
dc.pagina.inicio6713
dc.revistaInternational journal of climatology
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectbiodiversity hotspots
dc.subjectcentral America
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectCMIP5
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.subjectprojections
dc.subjectSouth America
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods06 Clean Water and Sanitation
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titlePresent-day and future climate over central and South America according to CMIP5/CMIP6 models
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen41
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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