Epidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth

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dc.article.number135
dc.contributor.authorKrsulovic, Felipe Augusto
dc.contributor.authorMoulton, Timothy P.
dc.contributor.authorLima Arce, Mauricio
dc.contributor.authorJaksic Andrade, Fabián
dc.contributor.otherPontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas
dc.contributor.otherCenter of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES)
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-19T16:27:08Z
dc.date.available2022-05-19T16:27:08Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.date.updated2022-05-01T00:18:37Z
dc.description.abstractBackground: During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that the changes of malaria cases in African highlands were driven by climate change. Recently, a study claimed that the malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum) in Oromia (Ethiopia) were related to minimum temperature. Critics highlighted that other variables could be involved in the dynamics of the malaria. The literature mentions that beyond climate change, trends in malaria cases could be involved with HIV, human population size, poverty, investments in health control programmes, among others. Methods: Population ecologists have developed a simple framework, which helps to explore the contributions of endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous processes on population dynamics. Both processes may operate to determine the dynamic behaviour of a particular population through time. Briefly, density-dependent (endogenous process) occurs when the per capita population growth rate (R) is determined by the previous population size. An exogenous process occurs when some variable affects another but is not affected by the changes it causes. This study explores the dynamics of malaria cases (Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) in Oromia region in Ethiopia and explores the interaction between minimum temperature, HIV, poverty, human population size and social instability. Results: The results support that malaria dynamics showed signs of a negative endogenous process between R and malaria infectious class, and a weak evidence to support the climate change hypothesis. Conclusion: Poverty, HIV, population size could interact to force malaria models parameters explaining the dynamics malaria observed at Ethiopia from 1985 to 2007.
dc.format.extent9 páginas
dc.fuente.origenAutoarchivo
dc.identifier.citationMalaria Journal. 2022 Apr 27;21(1):135
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s12936-022-04161-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-022-04161-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/64202
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000788315600002
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológica ; Krsulovic, Felipe Augusto ; 0000-0002-8260-1074 ; S/I
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas ; Lima Arce, Mauricio ; S/I ; 96853
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas ; Jaksic Andrade, Fabián ; 0000-0003-0098-0291 ; 99787
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido completo
dc.relation.isformatofMalaria Journal, vol. 21 (Apr.:2022)
dc.revistaMalaria Journal
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.holderThe Author(s)
dc.subjectMalaria dynamicses_ES
dc.subjectClimatees_ES
dc.subjectHIVes_ES
dc.subjectPovertyes_ES
dc.subjectSocial instabilityes_ES
dc.subjectPopulation sizees_ES
dc.subject.ddc614.532
dc.subject.deweyMedicina y saludes_ES
dc.subject.ods01 No poverty
dc.subject.odspa01 Fin de la pobreza
dc.subject.otherMalaria - Diagnósticoes_ES
dc.titleEpidemic malaria dynamics in Ethiopia: the role of self-limiting, poverty, HIV, climate change and human population growth
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen21
sipa.codpersvinculados96853
sipa.codpersvinculados99787
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