The impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul

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dc.contributor.authorPobocikova, Ivana
dc.contributor.authorde Souza, Amaury
dc.contributor.authorAbreu, Marcel Carvalho
dc.contributor.authorDe Oliveira-Junior, Jose Francisco
dc.contributor.authordos Santos, Cicero Manoel
dc.contributor.authorPinto Lins, Tayna Maria
dc.contributor.authorAristone, Flavio
dc.contributor.authorRamos, Pedro Luiz
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:04:03Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:04:03Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThe most significant and influential meteorological element in environmental conditions and human activities is precipitation. The objective of this study was to adjust eight probability distributions to monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, using a time series of data (1983-2013) by the National Meteorological Water Agency (ANA). The performance evaluation of different probability distribution models was assessed by the quality of fit of the selected probability distributions for precipitation data. Quality tests as chi-square, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Anderson-arling (AD), the information criteria as Akaike (AIC) and the Bayesian criterion (BIC) were used. Then the mean root square error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2) were applied. The analyzes were made monthly, annually and by seasons. The 3-parameter Lognormal distribution performs the best for all twelve months and provides the best-fit to the monthly rainfall data. Thus characterizing a dry period that runs from May to September and a rainy period between the months of October and April, it was observed that the 3-parameter Lognormal distribution has best adjustment for spring and summer, and for winter and autumn the 2-parameter Gamma and 3-parameter Gamma distribution performed better. For annual observations, the function that best fits is 3-parameter Weibull distribution.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.55112
dc.identifier.eissn1807-8664
dc.identifier.issn1806-2563
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.4025/actascitechnol.v43i1.55112
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/94066
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000725870700021
dc.language.isoen
dc.revistaActa scientiarum-technology
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectRainfall
dc.subjectadjustments
dc.subjectprobability distribution
dc.subjectquality tests
dc.subjectmodeling
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.ods06 Clean Water and Sanitation
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.titleThe impacts of climate change on rainfall modeling in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso do Sul
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen43
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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