Extinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios

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dc.contributor.authorRiquelme, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorEstay, Sergio A.
dc.contributor.authorContreras, Rafael
dc.contributor.authorCorti, Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-23T19:49:30Z
dc.date.available2025-01-23T19:49:30Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractClimate change affects population cycles of several species, threatening biodiversity. However, there are few long-term studies on species with conservation issues and restricted distributions. Huemul is a deer endemic to the southern Andes in South America and it is considered endangered mostly due to a 50% reduction of its distribution over the last 500 years. To assess environmental variables potentially affecting huemul population viability and the impact of climate change, we developed population dynamics models. We used a 14-year survey data from Bernardo O'Higgins National Park, coastal Chilean Patagonia. We used Ricker models considering winter and spring temperatures and precipitation as variables influencing huemul population dynamics. We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to select models with the greatest predictive power. The two best models (Delta BIC < 2) included winter temperature and density-dependence population growth drivers. The best model considered a lateral effect, where winter temperature influences carrying capacity and the second best a vertical effect with winter temperature influencingR(max)and carrying capacity. Population viability was evaluated using those models, projecting them over a 100-year period: (a) under current conditions and (b) under conditions estimated by Global Climate Models for 2050 and 2070. The extinction risk and quasi-extinction were estimated for this population considering two critical huemul abundance levels (15 and 30 individuals) for persistence. The population is currently in a quasi-extinction process, with extinction probabilities increasing with climate change. These results are crucial for conservation of species like huemul that have low densities and are threatened by climate change.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00484-020-01971-4
dc.identifier.eissn1432-1254
dc.identifier.issn0020-7128
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-01971-4
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/100507
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000554058600001
dc.issue.numero11
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final1855
dc.pagina.inicio1847
dc.revistaInternational journal of biometeorology
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectUngulate
dc.subjectEndangered species
dc.subjectDensity dependence
dc.subjectPopulation viability analysis
dc.subjectExtinction
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.titleExtinction risk assessment of a Patagonian ungulate using population dynamics models under climate change scenarios
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen64
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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