Risk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile

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dc.catalogadorjwg
dc.contributor.authorRosero-Velásquez, Hugo
dc.contributor.authorMonsalve Moreno, Mauricio Nivaldo Andrés
dc.contributor.authorGómez Zapata, Juan Camilo
dc.contributor.authorFerrario, Elisa
dc.contributor.authorPoulos Campbell, Alan John
dc.contributor.authorLlera Martin, Juan Carlos, de la
dc.contributor.authorStraub, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-21T14:04:44Z
dc.date.available2025-04-21T14:04:44Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractDifferent risk management activities, such as land-use planning, preparedness, and emergency response, utilize scenarios of earthquake events. A systematic selection of such scenarios should aim at finding those that are representative of a certain severity, which can be measured by consequences to the exposed assets. For this reason, defining a representative scenario as the most likely one leading to a loss with a specific return period, e.g., the 100-year loss, has been proposed.We adopt this definition and develop enhanced algorithms for determining such scenarios for multiple return periods. With this approach, we identify representative earthquake scenarios for the return periods of 50, 100, 500, and 1000 years in the Chilean communes of Valpara & iacute;so and Vi & ntilde;a del Mar, based on a synthetic earthquake catalog of 20 000 scenarios on the subduction zone with a magnitude of Mw >= 5.0. We separately consider the residential-building stock and the electrical-power network and identify and compare earthquake scenarios that are representative of these systems. Because the representative earthquake scenarios are defined in terms of the annual loss exceedance rates, they vary in function of the exposed system. The identified representative scenarios for the building stock have epicenters located not further than 30 km from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 6.0 and 7.0. The epicenter locations of the earthquake scenarios representative of the electrical-power network are more spread out but not further than 100 km away from the two communes, with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 9.0. For risk management activities, we recommend considering the identified scenarios together with historical events.
dc.description.funderBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; No. 03G0905AH; Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo; No. ANID/FONDAP/1523A0009; ANID/FONDECYT/ No. 1220292).
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2025-04-21
dc.fuente.origenWoS
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024
dc.identifier.eissn1684-9981
dc.identifier.issn1561-8633
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2667-2024
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/103348
dc.identifier.wosidWoS_ID: 001285561300001
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Monsalve Moreno, Mauricio Nivaldo Andrés; S/I; 1034599
dc.information.autorucS/I; Ferrario, Elisa; S/I; 1071009
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Llera Martín, Juan Carlos de la; 0000-0002-9064-0938; 53086
dc.issue.numero8
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.pagina.final2687
dc.pagina.inicio2667
dc.publisherCopernicus Gesellschaft MBH
dc.revistaNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.licenseCC BY Atribución Internacional 4.0
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc620
dc.subject.deweyIngenieríaes_ES
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.titleRisk-informed representative earthquake scenarios for Valparaíso and Viña del Mar, Chile
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen24
sipa.codpersvinculados1034599
sipa.codpersvinculados1071009
sipa.codpersvinculados53086
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWoS;2024-08-17
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