Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops

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dc.contributor.authorMeza, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorDarbyshire, Rebecca
dc.contributor.authorFarrell, Aidan
dc.contributor.authorLakso, Alan
dc.contributor.authorLawson, James
dc.contributor.authorMeinke, Holger
dc.contributor.authorNelson, Gerald
dc.contributor.authorStockle, Claudio
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T20:17:12Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T20:17:12Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractTemperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.
dc.description.funderFONDECYT
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/gcb.16601
dc.identifier.eissn1365-2486
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16601
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/92382
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000939101800001
dc.issue.numero9
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final2571
dc.pagina.inicio2557
dc.revistaGlobal change biology
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectchilling requirements
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectgrowing degree days
dc.subjectlimits to adaptation
dc.subjecttemperate Fruit trees
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.titleAssessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen29
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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