Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models

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dc.contributor.authorCamilo Gomez-Zapata, Juan
dc.contributor.authorPittore, Massimiliano
dc.contributor.authorCotton, Fabrice
dc.contributor.authorLilienkamp, Henning
dc.contributor.authorShinde, Simantini
dc.contributor.authorAguirre, Paula
dc.contributor.authorSanta Maria, Hernan
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:00:55Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:00:55Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractIn seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaiso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top-down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom-up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9
dc.identifier.eissn1573-1456
dc.identifier.issn1570-761X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/93768
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000744796200001
dc.issue.numero5
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final2438
dc.pagina.inicio2401
dc.revistaBulletin of earthquake engineering
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectEpistemic uncertainty
dc.subjectSensitivity analysis
dc.subjectScheme
dc.subjectFaceted taxonomy
dc.subjectProbabilistic exposure modelling
dc.subjectEarthquake scenario
dc.subjectData collection
dc.subjectEarthquake loss modelling
dc.subjectSpatially cross-correlated ground motion fields
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.titleEpistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen20
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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