Characterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tree analysis

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dc.contributor.authorSan Martin, Javiera
dc.contributor.authorCalisto, Ignacia
dc.contributor.authorQuezada, Jorge
dc.contributor.authorStewart, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorEly, Lisa
dc.contributor.authorCifuentes-Lobos, Rodrigo
dc.contributor.authorMoreno, Marcos
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T17:09:06Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T17:09:06Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.description.abstractCharacterizing the spatial distribution of ruptures from historical and recent earthquakes is key to understanding the seismic cycle of large earthquakes in subduction zones, and thus to assessing the potential risks associated with future earthquakes. Central Chile (35 degrees S38 degrees S) has been repeatedly affected by large earthquakes, such as the 2010 Maule (Mw 8.8) and the 1835 earthquakes witnessed by Robert Fitzroy (HMS Beagle captain). Here, we identify the rupture pattern and tsunami propagation of the 1751, 1835, and 2010 mega-earthquakes, events that overlapped in central Chile, by compiling historical records and applying robust statistical tools. We used an adaptation of a logic tree methodology to generate random sources of slip distribution for each event, constrained by tsunami and vertical deformation data. We find that the three events studied have different slip peaks. The 1751 earthquake has the largest slip with a maximum patch of similar to 26 m, while the 2010 and 1835 earthquakes reach slips of similar to 16 m and similar to 10 m, respectively. Our results show that a part of the margin between 36 degrees S and 37 degrees S was consistently affected by large earthquakes, but with different slip and depth. The shallower depths of the megathrust north of 36 degrees S accumulated energy for at least 300 years, which was released by the 2010 earthquake. Our results provide important constraint for rupture patterns and spatial relationships between historical and recent earthquakes, thus extending the time scale for seismic slip distribution analyses over multiple cycles and contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of seismic hazards.
dc.description.funderAgencia Nacional de Investigacin y Desarrollo
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-024-06404-8
dc.identifier.eissn1573-0840
dc.identifier.issn0921-030X
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06404-8
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/91013
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:001159407700001
dc.issue.numero6
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final5427
dc.pagina.inicio5411
dc.revistaNatural hazards
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectSeismic cycle
dc.subjectTsunami model
dc.subjectMegathrust earthquake
dc.subjectSlip distribution
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.titleCharacterization of historical megathrust earthquake ruptures in Central Chile using logic tree analysis
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen120
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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