ACUTE-RENAL-FAILURE IN THE ELDERLY - ASSESSMENT OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS
No Thumbnail Available
Date
1995
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
We studied 45 patients, aged 50 years and older, with acute renal failure during their admission. We assessed the chance oi death using a logistic regression stepwise model, with 16 variables. The mean age of the group was 68,4 +/- 10 years; 13 patients were hemodialised and the global mortality was 37,8 %. Mortality was not increased in hemodialysed patients. The statistical model used was:
Omega = 0.271 - 0.197* (days of admission) + 7.139* (mechanical ventilation). In this model the chance of death is computed as: p = e(Omega)/(7 + e(Omega)) It predicted death with a a 94, 1 % sensitivity, 92,9 specificity and 93,3 % predictive value. Our model was compared with 2 other models (Corwin and Liano), previously described. We conclude that it is feasible to predict mortality in elderly people with acute renal failure using a statistical model.
Omega = 0.271 - 0.197* (days of admission) + 7.139* (mechanical ventilation). In this model the chance of death is computed as: p = e(Omega)/(7 + e(Omega)) It predicted death with a a 94, 1 % sensitivity, 92,9 specificity and 93,3 % predictive value. Our model was compared with 2 other models (Corwin and Liano), previously described. We conclude that it is feasible to predict mortality in elderly people with acute renal failure using a statistical model.
Description
Keywords
RENAL FAILURE, HEMODIALYSIS, PROGNOSIS, LOGISTIC REGRESSION