Using a robust decision making (RDM) approach to explore current and future vulnerabilities of a semi-arid coastal basin: a case study of the Quilimarí basin in Chile

Simple item page
dc.catalogadorgjm
dc.contributor.authorPoblete López, David Nicolás
dc.contributor.authorVicuña Díaz, Sebastián
dc.contributor.authorAedo, Sebastián
dc.contributor.authorMolina-Pérez, Edmundo
dc.contributor.authorCortés, Hermilo
dc.contributor.authorMelo Contreras, Óscar
dc.contributor.authorOcampo-Melgar, Anahí
dc.contributor.authorTesen Arambulo, Kiara Aimee
dc.contributor.authorSuárez Poch, Francisco Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorHerane Espinosa, Juan Pablo
dc.contributor.authorMeza, Francisco Javier
dc.contributor.authorDuarte Becerra, Katherine Mariela
dc.contributor.authorGonzález Santander, Diego Nicolás
dc.contributor.authorLeray, Sarah
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Megan Elizabeth
dc.contributor.authorGaxiola, Aurora
dc.contributor.authorAlfaro, Gabriela
dc.contributor.authorMorales Moraga, David Alejandro
dc.date.accessioned2025-10-03T14:22:22Z
dc.date.available2025-10-03T14:22:22Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractClimate change, land use alterations, human activities, and regulatory frameworks all contribute to deep uncertainties that define water security in hydrological basins. This is particularly significant in drylands where water scarcity limits agricultural productivity. Robust Decision Making (RDM) is an effective approach for identifying strategies that perform well under uncertainty across a wide range of possible futures. One of RDM’s key strengths is its ability to guide decisions without relying on precise future predictions, emphasizing robustness rather than optimality. This study focuses on the Quilimarí River basin, located in the semi-arid coastal region of Chile, where groundwater is the primary water source. Small coastal communities rely on shallow boreholes, which have become brackish due to saline intrusion. We present the initial stages of implementing an RDM process with key local decisionmakers to explore the expected impacts of socio-hydrological stressors and uncertainties on the main water-dependent objectives. Different levels and approaches of participation during the 2 years of RDM process enabled the identification of critical concerns raised by local stakeholders and government agencies, the uncertainties likely to affect these issues, and potential actions for improving outcomes. To explore current and future vulnerabilities we used a WEAP-MODFLOW water resources model that integrates data on extraction wells, irrigation schemes, agricultural production, potable water supply, and associated costs, including saline intrusion processes. The model simulates trade-offs between different objectives, such as groundwater extraction for agriculture and job creation versus potable water for rural communities. The vulnerability exploration scenarios suggest a complex future, with up to a 40% reduction in precipitation and increased water demand from household and tourism use. To cope with the impacts associated with these global change scenarios a series of adaptation options were tested. Overall, desalination emerged as a favorable option for local human consumption demands, although tested only under basin-level metrics. This study illustrates valuable insights on how the water management strategies under uncertainty can benefit from local engagement towards testing robust decisions in arid and semi-arid coastal basis around the world.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2025-10-07
dc.format.extent22 páginas
dc.fuente.origenORCID
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fenvs.2025.1553675
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/105889
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2025.1553675
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Poblete López, David Nicolás; S/I; 119073
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Vicuña Díaz, Sebastián; 0000-0001-6971-0068; 7907
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Melo Contreras, Óscar; 0000-0002-9136-5413; 77463
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Tesen Arambulo, Kiara Aimee; S/I; 1101925
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Suárez Poch, Francisco Ignacio; 0000-0002-4394-957X; 15891
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Herane Espinosa, Juan Pablo; S/I; 214525
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Meza, Francisco Javier; 0000-0002-9853-227X; 86534
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Duarte Becerra, Katherine Mariela; S/I; 215315
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; González Santander, Diego Nicolás; S/I; 1104394
dc.information.autorucEscuela de Ingeniería; Leray, Sarah; 0000-0002-0341-7210; 1044639
dc.information.autorucS/I; Williams, Megan Elizabeth; S/I; 1167646
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Ciencias Biológicas; Gaxiola, Aurora; 0000-0003-2820-3689; 169320
dc.information.autorucFacultad de Agronomía e Ingenieria Forestal; Morales Moraga, David Alejandro; S/I; 163417
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.revistaFrontiers in Environmental Science
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.licenseCC BY 4.0 Attribution 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectVulnerability exploration
dc.subjectWEAP-MODFLOW modelling
dc.subjectGlobal change impacts
dc.subjectWater resources
dc.subjectRobust decision making
dc.subjectSemi-arid coastal basins
dc.subject.ddc570
dc.subject.deweyBiologíaes_ES
dc.subject.ods06 Clean water and sanitation
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.titleUsing a robust decision making (RDM) approach to explore current and future vulnerabilities of a semi-arid coastal basin: a case study of the Quilimarí basin in Chile
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen30
sipa.codpersvinculados119073
sipa.codpersvinculados7907
sipa.codpersvinculados77463
sipa.codpersvinculados1101925
sipa.codpersvinculados15891
sipa.codpersvinculados214525
sipa.codpersvinculados86534
sipa.codpersvinculados215315
sipa.codpersvinculados1104394
sipa.codpersvinculados1044639
sipa.codpersvinculados1167646
sipa.codpersvinculados169320
sipa.codpersvinculados163417
sipa.trazabilidadORCID;2025-09-29
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
fenvs-13-1553675.pdf
Size:
4.24 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.98 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Artículos de revistas