Modeling wildfires via marked spatio-temporal Poisson processes

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dc.contributor.authorQuinlan, Jose J.
dc.contributor.authorDiaz-Avalos, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorMena, Ramses H.
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:22:12Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:22:12Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractFrom a statistical viewpoint, characteristics such as ignition time, location and duration are relevant components for wildfire modeling. The observed ignition sites and starting times constitute a space-time point pattern, and a natural framework to model this type of data is via point processes. In this work, we propose a marked Poisson process to model fire patterns in space-time, considering durations as marks. The collected data correspond to fires observed in the Valencian Community, Spain, between 2010 and 2015. The methodology relies on writing the intensity function of such a process, jointly for starting times, locations and durations, as a weighted Dirichlet process mixture model. A particular choice of the kernel that determines such mixture was made, compatible with data features. We conducted posterior inference on some characteristics of interest for understanding wildfire behavior, showing high flexibility to emulate data patterns.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10651-021-00497-1
dc.identifier.eissn1573-3009
dc.identifier.issn1352-8505
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-021-00497-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/94671
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000648200200002
dc.issue.numero3
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final565
dc.pagina.inicio549
dc.revistaEnvironmental and ecological statistics
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectDirichlet process mixture model
dc.subjectPosterior inference
dc.subjectWildfire duration
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.titleModeling wildfires via marked spatio-temporal Poisson processes
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen28
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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