A ground-level ozone forecasting model for Santiago, Chile

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dc.contributor.authorJorquera, H
dc.contributor.authorPalma, W
dc.contributor.authorTapia, J
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-10T13:45:40Z
dc.date.available2024-01-10T13:45:40Z
dc.date.issued2002
dc.description.abstractA physically based model for ground-level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations-for low and high ozone impacts-with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two- and three-days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital05-04-2024
dc.format.extent22 páginas
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/for.836
dc.identifier.issn0277-6693
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/for.836
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/79065
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000178001300004
dc.information.autorucIngeniería;Jorquera H;S/I;100302
dc.information.autorucMatemática;Palma W;S/I;100091
dc.issue.numero6
dc.language.isoen
dc.nota.accesoContenido parcial
dc.pagina.final472
dc.pagina.inicio451
dc.publisherWILEY-BLACKWELL
dc.revistaJOURNAL OF FORECASTING
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectground-level ozone forecast
dc.subjectforecast evaluation
dc.subjectFIR model
dc.subjectLTF model
dc.subjectSTF model
dc.subjectNEURAL-NETWORK MODEL
dc.subjectTIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
dc.subjectLOWER FRASER VALLEY
dc.subjectLOS-ANGELES-BASIN
dc.subjectAIR-QUALITY DATA
dc.subjectMAXIMUM
dc.subjectPOLLUTANTS
dc.subjectPOLLUTION
dc.subjectAREA
dc.subjectIDENTIFICATION
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleA ground-level ozone forecasting model for Santiago, Chile
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen21
sipa.codpersvinculados100302
sipa.codpersvinculados100091
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.indexScopus
sipa.trazabilidadCarga SIPA;09-01-2024
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