Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply

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dc.contributor.authorRivera, Nilza
dc.contributor.authorIgnacio Guzman, Juan
dc.contributor.authorJoaquin Jara, Jose
dc.contributor.authorLagos, Gustavo
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-20T22:08:28Z
dc.date.available2025-01-20T22:08:28Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractCopper is essential in attaining a sustainable development path due to its prominent role in the electromobility and renewable energy industries. In 2019 refined copper usage was 23.5 million tons, of which primary copper supplied 86.3%, and the remaining 13.7% was provided by secondary metal. In the future, copper recycling would increase significantly concerning primary copper supply to meet the goal of decreasing greenhouse gases emissions. Secondary copper production reduces energy consumption by 85% and greenhouse gas emissions by 65% compared to average primary sources.
dc.description.abstractThis study analyzes seven econometric models described in the literature that tried to explain the supply of secondary refined copper worldwide (SRC). Furthermore, this study assesses the forecasting capacity of these models in the short and long-term. Although the explanatory variables selected by previous researchers are theoretically supported, they failed to fully explain SRC. An empirical analysis for the period 1960-2017 confirmed that only two of the eight studied explanatory variables shown to be causal of SRC in the short-term. The re-estimation of the coefficients shows high instability when the number of variables or observations changed, making it difficult to analyze the future market and to assess public policies. Although the explanatory variables share the same long-term trend (cointegrated series), they do not properly forecast the future when evaluated using the Backcasting methodology.
dc.description.abstractBased on these results, it is possible to improve the explanatory and predictive power of the analyzed models and reduce their average error.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102170
dc.identifier.eissn1873-7641
dc.identifier.issn0301-4207
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102170
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/94295
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000695172400041
dc.language.isoen
dc.revistaResources policy
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectSecondary copper
dc.subjectCopper
dc.subjectScrap
dc.subjectEconometric model
dc.subject.ods11 Sustainable Cities and Communities
dc.subject.ods12 Responsible Consumption and Production
dc.subject.ods09 Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
dc.subject.ods07 Affordable and Clean Energy
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.odspa11 Ciudades y comunidades sostenibles
dc.subject.odspa12 Producción y consumo responsable
dc.subject.odspa09 Industria, innovación e infraestructura
dc.subject.odspa07 Energía asequible y no contaminante
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleEvaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen73
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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