HOURLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR THE HUAYNAMOTA RIVER, NAYARIT, MEXICO, USING THE DISCRETE KALMAN FILTER

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dc.contributor.authorAlvarado-Hernandez, Leticia
dc.contributor.authorIbanez-Castillo, Laura A.
dc.contributor.authorRuiz-Garcia, Agustin
dc.contributor.authorGonzalez-Leiva, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorVazquez-Pena, Mario A.
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-23T19:46:31Z
dc.date.available2025-01-23T19:46:31Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractBecause of extreme rainfall events caused by climate change and of accelerated alteration of basins by population growth, it is important to forecast streamflow generated by precipitation events. The objective of this study was to predict hourly flows in the Huaynamota River basin using the Discrete Kalman Filter (DKF), together with the autoregressive exogenous input model (ARX). Initially, the Kalman filter parameters are defined then recalculated for defined periods; that is, the model parameter values are constantly updated. Flows were forecasted six steps ahead (L=1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours). The basin studied is part of the Huynamota River, delimited by the Chapalangana hydrometric station, upstream from the Aguamilpa reservoir, Nayarit, Mexico. The Huaynamota River is a tributary of the Santiago River. Hourly data series were used for precipitation and flow from August to September 2017. The DKF-ARX forecasting model showed Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes between 0.99 and 0.85, with L=1 and L=6, respectively. It is concluded that it is feasible to obtain a good forecast of hourly streamflow with the discrete Kalman filter.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.issn1405-3195
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/100300
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000604987100001
dc.issue.numero3
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final312
dc.pagina.inicio295
dc.revistaAgrociencia
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subjectdiscrete Kalman filter
dc.subjectautoregressive models
dc.subjectflow prediction
dc.subject.ods13 Climate Action
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods06 Clean Water and Sanitation
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.titleHOURLY STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR THE HUAYNAMOTA RIVER, NAYARIT, MEXICO, USING THE DISCRETE KALMAN FILTER
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen54
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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