Assessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins

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dc.article.numbere2024EF005064
dc.catalogadorgjm
dc.contributor.authorCalvo Gallardo, Rubén Ignacio
dc.contributor.authorLambert, Fabrice
dc.contributor.authorÁlamos Correa, Nicolás
dc.contributor.authorUrquiza, Anahí
dc.date.accessioned2025-05-13T20:01:48Z
dc.date.available2025-05-13T20:01:48Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.description.abstractClimate change is leading to a substantial reduction in glacier mass, and it is anticipated that during this century, the peak water contribution of glaciers to runoff will occur in major glacierized basins around the world. Glacier runoff is a crucial source of water in mountain basins, and a decrease in its contribution can affect agricultural production. In this study, we modeled the agricultural sector's response to changes in glacier runoff in the Asian basins of Amu Darya, Tarim Interior, and Indus, using the Global Change Analysis Model, which was driven by surface runoff derived from the Xanthos hydrological model and the Open Global Glacier Model. Our findings indicate that under SSP5-8.5, there is an increase in accessible water during the Peak-Water Glacier Runoff compared to the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario. However, accessible water under SSP58.5 falls below the Historical Glacier Runoff scenario in the last decades of the 21st century. The initial increase in accessible water drives the GCAM agricultural model to increase the production of oil crops, root tubers, sugar crops, and fruits, but only temporarily until peak glacier runoff occurrence. In Pakistan, we observe the adaptive response of neighboring basins (increased production) to a reduction in crop production in the Amu Darya and Indus and vice versa. Our results support the argument that policymakers should implement a holistic long-term perspective, in which the apparent positive economic effect of the temporary increase in accessible water is balanced with the threat to intergenerational access to freshwater and ecosystem conservation.
dc.fechaingreso.objetodigital2025-05-13
dc.format.extent14 páginas
dc.fuente.origenORCID
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2024EF005064
dc.identifier.issn2328-4277
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005064
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/104239
dc.information.autorucInstituto de Geografía; Calvo Gallardo, Rubén Ignacio; S/I; 1132133
dc.information.autorucInstituto de Geografía; Lambert, Fabrice; 0000-0002-2192-024X; 250043
dc.issue.numero5
dc.language.isoes
dc.nota.accesocontenido completo
dc.revistaEarth's Future
dc.rightsacceso abierto
dc.rights.licenseCC BY-NC-ND 4.0 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc550
dc.subject.deweyCiencias de la tierraes_ES
dc.subject.ods06 Clean water and sanitation
dc.subject.ods13 Climate action
dc.subject.odspa06 Agua limpia y saneamiento
dc.subject.odspa13 Acción por el clima
dc.titleAssessing the Effect of Glacier Runoff Changes on Basin Runoff and Agricultural Production in the Indus, Amu Darya, and Tarim Interior Basins
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen13
sipa.codpersvinculados1132133
sipa.codpersvinculados250043
sipa.trazabilidadORCID;2025-05-07
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