The future of food from the sea

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dc.contributor.authorCostello, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorCao, Ling
dc.contributor.authorGelcich, Stefan
dc.contributor.authorCisneros-Mata, Miguel A.
dc.contributor.authorFree, Christopher M.
dc.contributor.authorFroehlich, Halley E.
dc.contributor.authorGolden, Christopher D.
dc.contributor.authorIshimura, Gakushi
dc.contributor.authorMaier, Jason
dc.contributor.authorMacadam-Somer, Ilan
dc.contributor.authorMangin, Tracey
dc.contributor.authorMelnychuk, Michael C.
dc.contributor.authorMiyahara, Masanori
dc.contributor.authorde Moor, Carryn L.
dc.contributor.authorNaylor, Rosamond
dc.contributor.authorNostbakken, Linda
dc.contributor.authorOjea, Elena
dc.contributor.authorO'Reilly, Erin
dc.contributor.authorParma, Ana M.
dc.contributor.authorPlantinga, Andrew J.
dc.contributor.authorThilsted, Shakuntala H.
dc.contributor.authorLubchenco, Jane
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-23T19:49:15Z
dc.date.available2025-01-23T19:49:15Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractGlobal food demand is rising, and serious questions remain about whether supply can increase sustainably(1). Land-based expansion is possible but may exacerbate climate change and biodiversity loss, and compromise the delivery of other ecosystem services(2-6). As food from the sea represents only 17% of the current production of edible meat, we ask how much food we can expect the ocean to sustainably produce by 2050. Here we examine the main food-producing sectors in the ocean-wild fisheries, finfish mariculture and bivalve mariculture-to estimate 'sustainable supply curves' that account for ecological, economic, regulatory and technological constraints. We overlay these supply curves with demand scenarios to estimate future seafood production. We find that under our estimated demand shifts and supply scenarios (which account for policy reform and technology improvements), edible food from the sea could increase by 21-44 million tonnes by 2050, a 36-74% increase compared to current yields. This represents 12-25% of the estimated increase in all meat needed to feed 9.8 billion people by 2050. Increases in all three sectors are likely, but are most pronounced for mariculture. Whether these production potentials are realized sustainably will depend on factors such as policy reforms, technological innovation and the extent of future shifts in demand.
dc.description.abstractModelled supply curves show that, with policy reform and technological innovation, the production of food from the sea may increase sustainably, perhaps supplying 25% of the increase in demand for meat products by 2050.
dc.fuente.origenWOS
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
dc.identifier.eissn1476-4687
dc.identifier.issn0028-0836
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2616-y
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.uc.cl/handle/11534/100491
dc.identifier.wosidWOS:000561030800005
dc.issue.numero7836
dc.language.isoen
dc.pagina.final+
dc.pagina.inicio95
dc.revistaNature
dc.rightsacceso restringido
dc.subject.ods14 Life Below Water
dc.subject.ods15 Life on Land
dc.subject.odspa14 Vida submarina
dc.subject.odspa15 Vida de ecosistemas terrestres
dc.titleThe future of food from the sea
dc.typeartículo
dc.volumen588
sipa.indexWOS
sipa.trazabilidadWOS;2025-01-12
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