Browsing by Author "Winckler, Patricio"
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- ItemAnalysis of Climate-Related Risks for Chile's Coastal Settlements in the ARClim Web Platform(2022) Winckler, Patricio; Contreras-Lopez, Manuel; Garreaud, Rene; Meza, Francisco; Larraguibel, Cristian; Esparza, Cesar; Gelcich, Stefan; Falvey, Mark; Mora, JavieraThe web-based tool ARClim provides an atlas of climate change-related risk assessments spanning over 50 environmental and productive sectors in Chile. This paper illustrates the implementation of ARClim on two coastal sectors, operational downtime in fishing coves and flooding in coastal settlements, aiming to provide a tool to visualize comparative estimates of risk, which may enable decision makers and stakeholders to prioritize adaptation measures. The risk is calculated as a function of the hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. Exposure and sensitivity are characterized using present day information. To assess the hazard, wave climate for a historical period (1985-2004) and a projection (2026-2045) were modeled with six general circulation models (GCMs) for an RCP8.5 scenario. Similarly, sea-level rise was computed from 21 GCMs. Results show that the flooding hazard is mostly dependent on sea-level rise, with waves playing a minor role. However, the flooding risk is highly variable along the coast, due to differences in the exposure, which strongly depends on the population of each settlement. The analysis of increased operational downtime in fishing coves also shows risk, which is dependent of the size of each site. Lastly, limitations of the analysis and opportunities for improvement are discussed.
- ItemAssessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities(2023) León, Jorge; Winckler, Patricio; Vicuña del Río, María Magdalena; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés; Larraguibel, CristianThis study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.
- ItemClimate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment(2024) Winckler, Patricio; Farias, Laura; Vicuna, Sebastian; Esparza, Cesar; Mora, Javiera; Chubretovic, Rosario; Cabrera, Francisco; Zambrano-Sanchez, Nicolas; Caza, Pablo; Gonzalez, Rosa AnaClimate projections of ocean variables are essential to inform adaptation strategies and plans involving open and coastal oceanic regions. Assessment of baseline and projections of sea surface temperature (SST), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), mean sea level (MSL), waves coastal flooding within Ecuador's Exclusive Economic Zone, including Galapagos Islands are reported herein. With different magnitudes of change, both near-future (2021-2050) and far-future projections (2051-2080) show a statistically robust increase in SST, MSL rise and a reduction in pH, a proxy for acidification. In contrast, DO decrease is only observed in surface (0-100 m) but not in subsurface waters (100-400 m). The likelihood of extreme sea level events in the coastal cities of La Libertad, Manta and Esmeraldas would remain almost unchanged for near-future projections (2026-2045) whereas, for end-ofcentury projections (2081-2100), historical 1 in a 100-year extreme flooding events would become yearly occurrences. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change. Since the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the most productive and biodiverse worldwide due to the equatorial upwelling system, possible impacts on marine biodiversity, social, and economic systems are discussed.
- ItemCoastal erosion in central Chile: a new hazard?(2018) Martínez Reyes, Carolina del Pilar; Contreras-Lopez, Manuel; Winckler, Patricio; Hidalgo, Hector; Godoy, Eduardo; Agredano, Roberto
- ItemDecadal coastal evolution spanning the 2010 Maule earthquake at Isla Santa Maria, Chile: Framing Darwin's accounts of uplift over a seismic cycle(2023) Aedo, Diego; Cisternas, Marco; Melnick, Daniel; Esparza, Cesar; Winckler, Patricio; Saldana, BladimirCharles Darwin and Robert FitzRoy documented coseismic coastal uplift associated with the great 1835 Chile earthquake (M > 8.5) at Isla Santa Maria. In 2010, another similar earthquake (Mw 8.8) uplifted the island, ending the seismic cycle. The 2-m uplift in 2010 caused major geomorphic and sedimentologic changes to the island's sandy beaches. Understanding the processes governing these changes requires pre- and post-earthquake measurements to differentiate the effects of abrupt coseismic uplift from seasonal, annual, and decadal-scale signals. Here, we combine spatial analysis of aerial imagery, field geophysics, wind and wave models to quantify geomorphic changes between 1941 and 2021 along the main beach. During the late interseismic phase (1941-2010), a ridge-runnel system was formed and then buried by a frontal dune. Because of uplift in 2010, the shoreline prograded similar to 20 m, the uplifted berm was abandoned, and a new seaward berm was built. In the following decade, the abandoned berm was eroded by widening of the backshore as the shoreline and dune advanced seaward. Over the surveyed eight decades, the shoreline prograded continuously, increasing from <1 m/year to up to 3-5 m/year after the earthquake. We infer that these changes were caused by a sedimentary disequilibrium driven by variations in relative sea level, moving formerly passive sands from eroding cliffs and marine depths into the coastal sedimentary system, thus promoting long and cross-shore sediment transport and, utterly, accretion. Our results have implications for studying beach evolution along tectonically-active coasts associated with drastic changes in relative sea level.
- ItemDesalinización: oportunidades y desafíos para abordar la inseguridad hídrica en chile(Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología, Conocimiento e Innovación, 2022) Vicuña, Sebastián; Daniele, Linda; Farías, Laura; González, Humberto; Marquet, Pablo A.; Palma Behnke, Rodrigo; Stehr, Alejandra; Urquiza, Anahí; Wagemann, Elizabeth; Arenas Herrera, María J.; Bórquez, Rodrigo; Cornejo Ponce, Lorena; Delgado, Verónica; Etcheberry, Gabriel; Fragkou, María Christina; Fuster, Rodrigo; Gelcich, Stefan; Melo, Óscar; Monsalve, Tamara; Olivares, Marcelo; Ramajo, Laura; Ramírez Pascualli, Carlos; Rojas, Carolina; Rojas, Christian; Vilca Salinas, Patricia; Winckler, Patricio; Winckler, Patricio; Lambert, Fabrice
- ItemField Survey of the 27 February 2010 Chile Tsunami(2011) Fritz, Hermann M.; Petroff, Catherine M.; Catalán, Patricio A.; Cienfuegos Carrasco, Rodrigo Alberto; Winckler, Patricio; Kalligeris, Nikos; Weiss, Robert; Barrientos, Sergio E.; Meneses, Gianina; Valderas-Bermejo, Carolina; Ebeling, Carl; Papadopoulos, Athanassios; Contreras, Manuel; Almar, Rafael; Domínguez, Juan C.; Synolakis, Costas E.On 27 February 2010, a magnitude M-w = 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile's Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800 km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuin and the Pacific Islands of Santa Maria, Mocha, Juan Fernandez Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitucion. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales. Observations from the 2010 and 1960 Chile tsunamis are compared.
- ItemForward energy grade line analysis for tsunami inundation mapping(2025) Estrada Carrasco, María Fernanda; Cienfuegos Carrasco, Rodrigo Alberto; Urrutia, Alejandro; Catalán, Patricio A.; Winckler, PatricioA simplified model using 1D topobathymetric profiles for generating tsunami inundation maps is implemented and evaluated. The approach is a modification of the ASCE Energy Grade Line Analysis, that allows estimation of the maximum inundation distances using an iterative method. The modified methodology is implemented in three coastal cities in central Chile and compared with a database of 5400 full tsunami simulations obtained from a Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations solver. The key parameter of the model is based on the Froude number, for which three parameterizations and a range of values are tested. Results show that errors in the estimation of the areal extent of the inundation can be as low as 4%, after calibration. However, calibration is site specific and the optimal solution depends on the geographical characteristics of the area of interest. A sensitivity analysis based on the aleatoric sampling of the full tsunami simulation database show that as little as 100 inundation maps are required to perform the calibration of the model. This is a manageable number that offers reduced computational costs when compared with full tsunami simulations, and even those required to train other surrogate models using machine learning.
- ItemImpacts in ports on a tectonically active coast for climate-driven projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario: 7 Chilean ports under scrutiny(2022) Winckler, Patricio; Esparza Acuña, César Antonio; Mora, Javiera; Melo Contreras, Óscar; Bambach, Nicolás; Contreras López, Manuel; Sactic, María IsabelEconomic costs due to operational downtime and wave overtopping under the RCP 8.5 scenario are evaluated at 7 Chilean ports. Wave statistics for a historical period (1985–2004), mid-century (2026–2045), and end-of-century projections (2081–2100) are computed with a Pacific-wide model, forced by wind fields from six General Circulation Models. Offshore waves are then downscaled to each port, where a proxy of downtime is computed by comparing wave heights with vessel berthing criteria. The difference in downtime between the historical and future projections is attributed to climate change. Results show that some ports would reduce and others increase downtime for mid-century projections due to local effects. However, by the end-of-century, all ports would experience a reduction in downtime. Additionally, by mid-century, overtopping would increase in northern ports as a combination of extreme waves and sea-level rise (SLR), while in southern ports, it is expected to be slightly reduced. By the end-of century, overtopping would increase in the whole region, mainly driven by SLR. However, overtopping is significantly altered by coseismic uplift/subsidence that may occur during the design-life of coastal works. Finally, a few practical suggestions aimed atimproving infrastructure management and operational conditions at the analyzed ports are outlined.
- ItemObservations and Modeling of the 27 February 2010 Tsunami in Chile(ASCE Library, 2011) Fritz, Hermann M.; Synolakis, Costas E.; Petroff, Catherine M.; Catalán, Patricio A.; Cienfuegos Carrasco, Rodrigo Alberto; Winckler, Patricio; Kalligeris, Nikos; Weiss, Robert; Meneses, Gianina; Valderas-Bermejo, Carolina; Ebeling, Carl; Papadopoulos, Athanassios; Contreras, Manuel; Almar, Rafael; Domínguez, Juan C.; Barrientos, Sergio E.On February 27, 2010, a magnitude Mw = 8.8 earthquake occurred off the coast of Chile's Maule region causing substantial damage and loss of life. Ancestral tsunami knowledge from the 1960 event combined with education and evacuation exercises prompted most coastal residents to spontaneously evacuate after the earthquake. Many of the tsunami victims were tourists in coastal campgrounds. The international tsunami survey team (ITST) was deployed within days of the event and surveyed 800 km of coastline from Quintero to Mehuín and the Pacific Islands of Santa María, Mocha, Juan Fernández Archipelago, and Rapa Nui (Easter). The collected survey data include more than 400 tsunami flow depth, runup and coastal uplift measurements. The tsunami peaked with a localized runup of 29 m on a coastal bluff at Constitución. The observed runup distributions exhibit significant variations on local and regional scales.
- ItemProjections of Beach Erosion and Associated Costs in Chile(2023) Winckler, Patricio; Agredano Martín, Roberto; Esparza Acuña, César Antonio; Melo Contreras, Óscar; Sactic, María Isabel; Martínez, CarolinaEconomic costs associated to coastal erosion are projected in 45 sandy beaches in Chilean coasts. We compare mid-century (2026–2045) and end-of-century projections (2081–2100) of wave climate and sea-level rise (SLR) with a historical period (1985–2004) using several General Circulation Models for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Offshore wave data are then downscaled to each site, where shoreline retreat is assessed with Bruun rule for various berm heights and sediment diameters. Results indicate that mid-century retreat would be moderate (>13 m) while larger end-of-century projections (>53 m) are explained by SLR (0.58 ± 0.25 m). A small counterclockwise rotation of long beaches is also expected. To assess the costs of shoreline retreat, we use the benefit transfer methodology by using adjusted values from a previous study to the sites of interest. Results show that, by mid-century, beach width reduction would be between 2.0% and 68.2%, implying a total annual loss of USD 5.6 [5.1–6.1] million. For end-the-century projections, beach width reduction is more significant (8.4–100%), involving a total annual loss of USD 10.5 [8.1–11.8] million. Additionally, by the end-of-century, 13–25 beaches could disappear. These costs should be reduced with coastal management practices which are nevertheless inexistent in the country.
- ItemThe 1730 Great Metropolitan Chile Earthquake and Tsunami Commemoration: Joint Efforts to Increase the Country's Awareness(2020) Zamora, Natalia; Gubler, Alejandra; Orellana, Victor; Leon, Jorge; Urrutia, Alejandro; Carvajal, Matias; Cisternas, Marco; Catalan, Patricio; Winckler, Patricio; Cienfuegos, Rodrigo; Karich, Cristobal; Vogel, Stefan; Galaz, Jose; Pereira, Sebastian; Bertin, CelesteOn 8 July 1730, a great earthquake struck metropolitan Chile, causing extensive damage 1000 km along the country and focused in Valparaiso. Due to the date of occurrence of this event, large uncertainties about the earthquake's magnitude have been discussed among the scientific community, and the earthquake and tsunami have remained unknown for most of the population. The purpose of this paper is to describe joint efforts undertaken by organizations, academia, and authorities to rescue the forgotten memory of an event that occurred almost three centuries ago and that may be repeated in the near future. In line with the Sendai Framework, we focus on one of the four priorities for action, which is to understand disaster risk, with the premise that the memory activation and raising awareness can save lives in the future. We designed outreach strategies to communicate this knowledge to the community in a participatory way. The latter involves scientific talks, earthquake simulators, tsunami projection mapping on relief scaled models (mock-up), and a public debate including the participation of academia, politicians, authorities, and the local community. The emulation of such activities and the constant work of regional and national authorities, academia, and non-governmental organizations dealing with risk mitigation encourage involving the community to build safer cities against the tsunami hazard.