Browsing by Author "Valencia, Consuelo"

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    How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?
    (2021) Cortazar, Gonzalo; Ortega, Hector; Valencia, Consuelo
    Even though there is a wide consensus that having good oil price forecasts is very valuable for many agents in the economy, results have not been fully satisfactory and there is an ongoing effort to improve their accuracy. Research has explored many different modeling approaches including time series, regressions, and artificial intelligence, among others. Also, many different sources of input data have been used like spot and futures prices, product spreads, and micro and macro variables.