Browsing by Author "Urdinez, Francisco"

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    An Evolutionary Perspective on Trade and Industrial Linkages between Chile and China.
    (2025) Rehner, Johannes; Montt, María; Urdinez, Francisco
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    An interactive model of democratic peace
    (2020) David Altman; Federico Rojas-de-Galarreta; Urdinez, Francisco
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    China’s Foreign Aid Political Drivers: Lessons from a Novel Dataset of Mask Diplomacy in Latin America during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (SAGE Publications Inc., 2021) Telias D.; Urdinez, Francisco
    © The Author(s) 2021.This study investigates a novel dataset comprised of a universe of 537 donations in 33 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, between 11 February and 20 June 2020, which provides a high level of detail on China’s and Taiwan’s mask diplomacy. We describe who the main donors were, who the main recipients were, what was donated to each country, and which variables explain why some countries received more aid than others. Drawing on previous literature, the article advances understanding about the political determinants of these donations. Our findings revealed that, although seemingly uncoordinated, donations made by China’s central government, Chinese companies, cities, and foundations were strongly affected by two political determinants, namely the recipient’s partnership status with China and the One China Policy. Furthermore, aid provided by China’s Central Government was larger in autocracies than in democracies.
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    Deconstructing the Belt and Road Initiative in Latin America
    (2021) Juan Enrique Serrano Moreno; Diego Telias; Urdinez, Francisco
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    Democratic evolution in Chile: electoral reforms, voter behavior, and democratic satisfaction
    (2025) Palma, Nerea C.; Urdinez, Francisco; Bargsted, Matías; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Ciencia Política
    This dissertation explores key factors shaping democratic engagement and electoral behavior in Chile. The first article examines the 2020 plebiscite, showing that voting for the winning option increases satisfaction with democracy both short- and long-term. The second article analyzes the 2021 presidential election, revealing that political disaffection influenced outsider candidate support in unexpected ways. The third article studies electoral reform’s impact on turnout, highlighting a non-linear relationship between district magnitude and participation. Together, these studies provide insights into electoral outcomes, political trust, and democratic legitimacy in Chile.
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    Digging deeper: Unpacking the subnational political drivers of chinese extractive investment in Latin America
    (2024) Giraudy, Agustina; Urdinez, Francisco; Freites Hernández, Andrea Patricia Astrid
    There is a long scholarly tradition that argues that political variables figure prominently in international corporations’ decisions to invest abroad. Most of this literature has focused on the national political determinants of investment allocation. Yet, in some sectors, the bulk of this investment is local. Chief among these sectors are extractive industries where assets are endowed to different local jurisdictions. How do political factors shape extractive foreign direct investment (EFDI) in local jurisdictions? We focus on Latin America, a region of the world that is rich in natural resources, and that has recently attracted a sizable amount of Chinese investment. Drawing on a novel dataset on subnational Chinese EFDI in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico (2002–2018), and using a logistic model with time series cross-national data we find that multilevel partisan alignment is a strong determinant of Chinese EFDI. In highly decentralized countries, Chinese EFDI is primarily targeted to subnational districts ruled by governors who are politically aligned with presidents. We illustrate the logics of this allocation with two case studies. Our findings make a valuable contribution to three growing fields of study: the subnational determinants of foreign investments, multilevel governance, and the political factors driving Chinese investments in developing countries.
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    El Auge de las Cerezas Chilenas y el Desafío del Mercado Chino
    (Núcleo Milenio de los Impactos de China en América Latina ICLAC, 2024) Montt Strabucchi, María; Urdinez, Francisco; Aguirre Araya, Italo Andre; Matamala, Gonzalo
    En los últimos años Chile ha experimentado un notable auge en la producción de cerezas. Factores como el crecimiento constante en la superficie cultivada, la cantidad exportada y el valor de las exportaciones son prueba de esta tendencia. A su vez, China ha emergido como el principal destino de las cerezas chilenas en el mercado internacional, acaparando más del 90% de las exportaciones cada temporada. Esta prominente preferencia se debe en gran medida al elevado precio que los consumidores chinos están dispuestos a pagar por las cerezas, especialmente durante el Año Nuevo Chino debido al significativo valor cultural que tiene este fruto. En este contexto, el sector productor chileno alberga expectativas optimistas, anticipando que los altos precios se mantendrán y que la producción continuará expandiéndose a corto plazo. De hecho, en ciertos círculos especializados, ha surgido la idea de que Chile no sería capaz de satisfacer la demanda china incluso si se duplicara la superficie plantada de cerezos. No obstante, algunos actores de la industria expresan preocupación por la concentración excesiva del mercado y temen un posible comportamiento adverso por parte de China como retaliación ante alguna crisis bilateral. Asimismo, las posibles dificultades a corto plazo no se relacionan tanto con la demanda de cerezas como con la oferta, ya que en Chile comienzan a surgir señales que indican que el desarrollo agroindustrial podría estar alcanzando sus límites, debido principalmente al estrés hídrico y la falta de mano de obra.
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    Geopolitics and Geoeconomics in the China–Latin American Relations in the Context of the US–China Trade War and the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (SAGE Publications Inc., 2022) Gachuz Maya J.C.; Urdinez, Francisco
    © The Author(s) 2022.The Bretton Woods institutions have failed to accommodate a rising China, and many authors describe this moment as a crisis of the liberal order, which China is intentionally contesting. The World Trade Organization was incapable of offering a solution to the trade war, and more recently, the World Health Organization was incapable of reducing – and rather partly contributed to – tensions between the US and China in the management of COVID-19 crisis. This Special Issue is made up of six manuscripts that address the most sensitive issues of the China–Latin American relationship amid the challenges of the growing dispute with the United States. The manuscripts assess the four main concerns that are shaping the agenda in China–Latin American relations in times of increasing geopolitical and geoeconomic competition between the United States and China: the Belt and Road Initiative, the One-China policy, the trade war, and the COVID-19 crisis.
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    Legislative Behavior, Mass Media, and Foreign Policy Making: The Case of Paraguay
    (LATIN AMER STUDIES ASSOC, 2021) Ribeiro, Pedro Feliu; Burian, Camilo Lopez; Urdinez, Francisco
    Does national media news coverage affect the behavior of legislators when deciding foreign policy matters? This article aims to disentangle the relationship between the media and legislative behavior in foreign policy, using Paraguay as a case study. We analyze the level of public debate on international affairs, measured by the frequency of news in the newspaper ABC Color in the six months before the roll-call votes on the Chamber of Deputies of Paraguay. The literature on Latin American studies finds a lack of parliamentary interest in foreign affairs due to low voter attention to this subject, and therefore a low impact on reelections. We find the relationship between parliamentary polarization and public interest in a bill to be mediated by mass media. After estimating a Tobit model, we observe a significant and positive relationship between the news coverage a law receives and the degree of polarization among parliamentarians. Thus, our empirical evidence contradicts the idea that there is a lack of electoral interest in foreign policy. We confirm this finding through qualitative data gathered from in-depth interviews.
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    Monitor de Opinión Pública 2023: ¿Qué piensan los chilenos sobre China?
    (2024) Jenne, Nicole; Labarca Encina, Claudia; Montt Strabucchi, María; Urdinez, Francisco
    Este informe presenta los principales hallazgos de la primera encuesta de opinión pública sobre China en Chile, realizada por ICLAC en septiembre de 2023. La encuesta, con una muestra de 660 participantes, reveló una opinión generalmente favorable hacia China, influenciada por la posición ideológica y el voto en las elecciones presidenciales de 2021. Los chilenos asocian a China con el comercio, “malls chinos” y su crecimiento económico. Aunque la mayoría considera importante que un socio económico de Chile sea democrático, el interés económico parece primar en la práctica. En las regiones, donde el impacto económico chino es mayor, China es percibida como una oportunidad más que como un riesgo y hay un claro deseo de que el país no entre en la disputa geopolítica entre China y Estados Unidos. La diáspora china en Chile es visible principalmente a través del comercio y la mayoría de las interacciones con personas chinas son positivas. Durante la pandemia, las vacunas chinas jugaron un rol importante como alternativa a las occidentales, aunque no son valoradas como las más deseables entre otras opciones. El fuerte daño reputacional de China durante la pandemia, observado en estudios previos, se ve recuperado. En conclusión, la relevancia económica y el aumento de la presencia comercial de China en Chile han contribuido a una percepción generalmente favorable de China en la opinión pública nacional.
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    Of words and deeds: Latin American declaratory regionalism, 1994-2014
    (2017) Urdinez, Francisco; Jenne, Nicole; Schenoni, L. l.
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    The Nexus between Authoritarian and Environmental Regionalism: An Analysis of China’s Driving Role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
    (Routledge, 2021) Agostinis G.; Urdinez, Francisco
    © 2021 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.This article explores the growing environmental activism of nondemocratic regional organizations (NDROs) by investigating the case of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), addressing the following questions: What explains the emergence of environmental regionalism in the SCO? What are its characteristics and effects? We show that China has acted as the driver of environmental regionalism in the SCO —whose members rank among the world’s top CO2 emitters— providing positive incentives for the establishment of regional environmental institutions and fostering member states’ green energy transition through the top-down deployment of Chinese financial institutions and construction companies. In so doing, China has sought to consolidate its regional leadership in Eurasia, while promoting its economic statecraft and its bid for global environmental leadership.
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