Browsing by Author "Serrano Notivoli, Roberto"

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    Comparing SPI and SPEI to detect different precipitation and temperature regimes in Chile throughout the last four decades
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Meseguer Ruiz, Oliver; Serrano Notivoli, Roberto; Aránguiz Acuña, Adriana; Fuentealba Landeros, María Magdalena; Núñez Hidalgo, Ignacio; Sarricolea, Pablo; Garreaud, René
    Droughts are one of the main environmental challenges facing the world this century. The latitudinal and orographic characteristics of continental Chile leads different areas within it to experience very different regimes of precipitation and temperature, resulting in a wide variation in the occurrence and severity of droughts. Using the CR2Met 5 × 5 km resolution gridded monthly dataset covering the years from 1979 to 2019, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) of March and September at 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-months to: 1) relate them with different climate modes, and 2) determine their temporal evolution. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shows low positive correlations with SPI but no significant correlations with SPEI. The Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation shows different correlations in northern Chile, as well as El Niño 1 + 2 and the Antarctic Oscillation, for both SPI and SPEI. Both SPI and SPEI show negative (drier) trends in the north and center of Chile, while positive (wetter) trends appear in the south. SPEI shows stronger and more significant negative trends, influenced by the overall warming of the country. Warming trends are lower on the coast, so SPI could be a good indicator for coastal areas, while SPEI could be a good indicator for inland areas. Climate modes are useful for monthly and annual predictions, and by being a good drought predictor, they can help inform key public policies. These results are expected to help Chilean decision makers dealing with the challenges facing water management in the immediate future.
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    Heat vulnerability in a hyper-arid coastal conurbation: downscaled LST and socio-spatial analysis
    (2025) Sarricolea, Pablo; Baltazar, Alexis; Meseguer Ruiz, Oliver; Smith, Pamela; Picone, Natasha; Serrano Notivoli, Roberto; Vidal Paez, Paulina; Fuentealba, Magdalena; Thomas, Felipe
    Heat vulnerability is a critical issue for cities under climate change, especially in socially precarious contexts and extreme climates such as deserts. The Iquique–Alto Hospicio conurbation in northern Chile represents a distinctive case study due to its marked altitudinal contrasts and rapid urban expansion. This research focuses on assessing the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) at its peak expression, during summer nighttime conditions, in order to spatialize heat vulnerability. A multi-scalar workflow was applied, beginning with long-term multitemporal analysis of land surface temperature at moderate resolution (2002–2023) and extending to high-resolution downscaling for five recent years (2019–2023) using bilinear resampling combined with robust regression techniques. A heat vulnerability index was then developed through principal component analysis (four components, ∼74% variance explained), complemented by a spatial cluster analysis based on Anselin’s Local Moran’s I, which delineated statistically significant hot-spots in Iquique’s historic core and in recently formalized social-housing districts on the Alto Hospicio plateau, as well as cold-spots along the affluent coastal seafront. The results confirm the presence of a strong nocturnal summer SUHI, largely coinciding with the most densely populated areas characterized by low-rise housing and limited green space. The local climate zone Compact low-rise and lightweight built forms were identified as the most vulnerable to heat. The study concludes that effective strategies should promote less dense building typologies while incorporating urban infrastructures that act as climate refuges across the conurbation. More broadly, the approach offers a transferable template for climate-resilient planning in data-scarce, arid coastal cities worldwide.