Browsing by Author "Mora, Javiera"

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    Analysis of Climate-Related Risks for Chile's Coastal Settlements in the ARClim Web Platform
    (2022) Winckler, Patricio; Contreras-Lopez, Manuel; Garreaud, Rene; Meza, Francisco; Larraguibel, Cristian; Esparza, Cesar; Gelcich, Stefan; Falvey, Mark; Mora, Javiera
    The web-based tool ARClim provides an atlas of climate change-related risk assessments spanning over 50 environmental and productive sectors in Chile. This paper illustrates the implementation of ARClim on two coastal sectors, operational downtime in fishing coves and flooding in coastal settlements, aiming to provide a tool to visualize comparative estimates of risk, which may enable decision makers and stakeholders to prioritize adaptation measures. The risk is calculated as a function of the hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. Exposure and sensitivity are characterized using present day information. To assess the hazard, wave climate for a historical period (1985-2004) and a projection (2026-2045) were modeled with six general circulation models (GCMs) for an RCP8.5 scenario. Similarly, sea-level rise was computed from 21 GCMs. Results show that the flooding hazard is mostly dependent on sea-level rise, with waves playing a minor role. However, the flooding risk is highly variable along the coast, due to differences in the exposure, which strongly depends on the population of each settlement. The analysis of increased operational downtime in fishing coves also shows risk, which is dependent of the size of each site. Lastly, limitations of the analysis and opportunities for improvement are discussed.
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    Climate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment
    (2024) Winckler, Patricio; Farias, Laura; Vicuna, Sebastian; Esparza, Cesar; Mora, Javiera; Chubretovic, Rosario; Cabrera, Francisco; Zambrano-Sanchez, Nicolas; Caza, Pablo; Gonzalez, Rosa Ana
    Climate projections of ocean variables are essential to inform adaptation strategies and plans involving open and coastal oceanic regions. Assessment of baseline and projections of sea surface temperature (SST), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), mean sea level (MSL), waves coastal flooding within Ecuador's Exclusive Economic Zone, including Galapagos Islands are reported herein. With different magnitudes of change, both near-future (2021-2050) and far-future projections (2051-2080) show a statistically robust increase in SST, MSL rise and a reduction in pH, a proxy for acidification. In contrast, DO decrease is only observed in surface (0-100 m) but not in subsurface waters (100-400 m). The likelihood of extreme sea level events in the coastal cities of La Libertad, Manta and Esmeraldas would remain almost unchanged for near-future projections (2026-2045) whereas, for end-ofcentury projections (2081-2100), historical 1 in a 100-year extreme flooding events would become yearly occurrences. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change. Since the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the most productive and biodiverse worldwide due to the equatorial upwelling system, possible impacts on marine biodiversity, social, and economic systems are discussed.
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    Impacts in ports on a tectonically active coast for climate-driven projections under the RCP 8.5 scenario: 7 Chilean ports under scrutiny
    (2022) Winckler, Patricio; Esparza Acuña, César Antonio; Mora, Javiera; Melo Contreras, Óscar; Bambach, Nicolás; Contreras López, Manuel; Sactic, María Isabel
    Economic costs due to operational downtime and wave overtopping under the RCP 8.5 scenario are evaluated at 7 Chilean ports. Wave statistics for a historical period (1985–2004), mid-century (2026–2045), and end-of-century projections (2081–2100) are computed with a Pacific-wide model, forced by wind fields from six General Circulation Models. Offshore waves are then downscaled to each port, where a proxy of downtime is computed by comparing wave heights with vessel berthing criteria. The difference in downtime between the historical and future projections is attributed to climate change. Results show that some ports would reduce and others increase downtime for mid-century projections due to local effects. However, by the end-of-century, all ports would experience a reduction in downtime. Additionally, by mid-century, overtopping would increase in northern ports as a combination of extreme waves and sea-level rise (SLR), while in southern ports, it is expected to be slightly reduced. By the end-of century, overtopping would increase in the whole region, mainly driven by SLR. However, overtopping is significantly altered by coseismic uplift/subsidence that may occur during the design-life of coastal works. Finally, a few practical suggestions aimed atimproving infrastructure management and operational conditions at the analyzed ports are outlined.