Browsing by Author "Larraguibel, Cristian"

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    Analysis of Climate-Related Risks for Chile's Coastal Settlements in the ARClim Web Platform
    (2022) Winckler, Patricio; Contreras-Lopez, Manuel; Garreaud, Rene; Meza, Francisco; Larraguibel, Cristian; Esparza, Cesar; Gelcich, Stefan; Falvey, Mark; Mora, Javiera
    The web-based tool ARClim provides an atlas of climate change-related risk assessments spanning over 50 environmental and productive sectors in Chile. This paper illustrates the implementation of ARClim on two coastal sectors, operational downtime in fishing coves and flooding in coastal settlements, aiming to provide a tool to visualize comparative estimates of risk, which may enable decision makers and stakeholders to prioritize adaptation measures. The risk is calculated as a function of the hazard, exposure, and sensitivity. Exposure and sensitivity are characterized using present day information. To assess the hazard, wave climate for a historical period (1985-2004) and a projection (2026-2045) were modeled with six general circulation models (GCMs) for an RCP8.5 scenario. Similarly, sea-level rise was computed from 21 GCMs. Results show that the flooding hazard is mostly dependent on sea-level rise, with waves playing a minor role. However, the flooding risk is highly variable along the coast, due to differences in the exposure, which strongly depends on the population of each settlement. The analysis of increased operational downtime in fishing coves also shows risk, which is dependent of the size of each site. Lastly, limitations of the analysis and opportunities for improvement are discussed.
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    Assessing the Role of Land-Use Planning in Near Future Climate-Driven Scenarios in Chilean Coastal Cities
    (2023) León, Jorge; Winckler, Patricio; Vicuña del Río, María Magdalena; Guzmán Pincheira, Simón Andrés; Larraguibel, Cristian
    This study reviews the degree to which land-use planning addresses climate change adaptation in Chilean Low Elevated Coastal Zones (LECZ). We first select 12 of the country’s most exposed coastal municipalities using a Municipal Exposure Index (MEI). Then, we conduct a content analysis of the communal regulatory plans (CRPs) using a “presumed exposure analysis”, which assumes that the inventory of assets within LECZ, according to the 2017 census, is a proxy of the exposure. Then, we conduct a more refined “hazard exposure analysis” by comparing changes in flooding levels between a historical period (1985–2004) and the RCP8.5 scenario (2026–2045). Using the latter approach, we show that flooding could affect large portions of the municipalities’ housing areas (3.7%), critical facilities (14.6%), and wetlands (22.7%) in the period 2026–2045. In the presumed exposure analysis, these percentages rise to 7.5%, 23.9%, and 24.9%, respectively. We find that CRPs also allow for a densification of exposed residential areas, whose density would increase by 9.2 times, on average, between the historical period and the RCP8.5 scenario. Additionally, only four municipalities define floodable zones as “risk areas”. Lastly, the difficulty in updating CRPs and their antiquity −21.25 years old on average could explain their ineffectiveness in implementing climate change adaptation strategies.