Browsing by Author "Dirchwolf, Melisa"

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    An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study
    (2024) Dunn, Winston; Li, Yanming; Singal, Ashwani K.; Simonetto, Douglas A.; Díaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Ayares, Gustavo; Arnold Alvaréz, Jorge Ignacio; Ayala-Valverde, Maria; Perez, Diego; Gomez, Jaime; Escarate, Rodrigo; Fuentes López, Eduardo; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Morales-Arraez, Dalia; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Mehta, Heer; Dunn, Nicholas; Waleed, Muhammad; Stefanescu, Horia; Bumbu, Andreea; Horhat, Adelina; Attar, Bashar; Agrawal, Rohit; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavaria, Victor; Cuyas, Berta; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera, Fatima; Kulkarni, Anand V.; Rao, P. Nagaraja; Guerra-Salazar, Patricia; Skladany, Lubomir; Kubanek, Natalia; Prado, Veronica; Clemente-Sanchez, Ana; Rincon, Diego; Haider, Tehseen; Chacko, Kristina R.; Romero, Gustavo A.; Pollarsky, Florencia D.; Restrepo, Juan C.; Toro, Luis G.; Yaquich, Pamela; Mendizabal, Manuel; Garrido, Maria L.; Marciano, Sebastian; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Vargas, Victor; Jimenez, Cesar; Hudson, David; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Ortiz, Guillermo; Abraldes, Juan G.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese, Marco; Shah, Vijay H.; Bataller, Ramon; Arab, Juan P.
    Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.
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    Latin American Association for the study of the liver (ALEH) practice guidance for the diagnosis and treatment of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
    (2020) Pablo Arab, Juan; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Alvares-da-Silva, Mario Reis; Barrera, Francisco; Benitez, Carlos; Castellanos-Fernandez, Marlene; Castro-Narro, Graciela; Chavez-Tapia, Norberto; Chiodi, Daniela; Cotrim, Helma; Cusi, Kenneth; Marques Souza de Oliveira, Claudia Pinto; Diaz, Javier; Fassio, Eduardo; Gerona, Solange; Girala, Marcos; Hernandez, Nelia; Marciano, Sebastian; Masson, Walter; Mendez-Sanchez, Nahum; Leite, Nathalie; Lozano, Adelina; Padilla, Martin; Panduro, Arturo; Parana, Raymundo; Parise, Edison; Perez, Marlene; Poniachik, Jaime; Carlos Restrepo, Juan; Ruf, Andres; Silva, Marcelo; Tagle, Martin; Tapias, Monica; Torres, Kenia; Vilar-Gomez, Eduardo; Costa Gil, Jose Eduardo; Gadano, Adrian; Arrese, Marco
    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) currently represents an epidemic worldwide. NAFLD is the most frequently diagnosed chronic liver disease, affecting 20-30% of the general population. Furthermore, its prevalence is predicted to increase exponentially in the next decades, concomitantly with the global epidemic of obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and sedentary lifestyle. NAFLD is a clinical syndrome that encompasses a wide spectrum of associated diseases and hepatic complications such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Moreover, this disease is believed to become the main indication for liver transplantation in the near future. Since NAFLD management represents a growing challenge for primary care physicians, the Asociacion Latinoamericana para el Estudio del Higado (ALEH) has decided to organize this Practice Guidance for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease, written by Latin-American specialists in different clinical areas, and destined to general practitioners, internal medicine specialists, endocrinologists, diabetologists, gastroenterologists, and hepatologists. The main purpose of this document is to improve patient care and awareness of NAFLD. The information provided in this guidance may also be useful in assisting stakeholders in the decision-making process related to NAFLD. Since new evidence is constantly emerging on different aspects of the disease, updates to this guideline will be required in future. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. on behalf of Fundacion Cilnica Medica Sur, A.C.
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    MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis
    (Elsevier B.V., 2023) Diaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Fuentes Lopez, Eduardo; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Arnold Álvarez, Jorge Ignacio; Valverde, María Ayala; Perez, Diego; Gómez, Jaime; Escarate, Rodrigo; Villalon Friedrich, Alejandro Andrés; Ramírez, Carolina A.; Hernández-Tejero, María; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Agrawal, Rohit; Cabezas, Joaquín; Garcia Carrera, Inés; Cuyas, Berta; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Abdulsada, Saba; Higuera de la Tijera, Fátima; Kulkarni, Anand V.; Rao, P. Nagaraja; Guerra Salazar, Patricia; Skladany, Lubomir; Bystrianska, Natália; Clemente Sánchez, Ana; Villaseca Gómez, Clara; Haider, Tehseen; Chacko, Kristina R.; Romero, Gustavo A.; Pollarsky Florencia D.; Restrepo, Juan Carlos; Castro Sánchez, Susan; Toro, Luis G.; Yaquich, Pamela; Mendizabal, Manuel; Garrido, María Laura; Marciano, Sebastián; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Vargas, Víctor; Jimenez, César; Louvet, Alexandre; Garcia Tsao, Guadalupe; Roblero, Juan Pablo; Abraldes, Juan G.; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese Jimenez, Marco Antonio; Singal, Ashwani K.; Bataller, Ramón; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo
    © 2023 The Author(s)Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20–33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732–0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713–0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691–0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723–0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727–0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724–0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708–0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687–0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805–0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.
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    Procedural-Related Bleeding in Hospitalized Patients With Liver Disease (PROC-BLeeD): An International, Prospective, Multicenter Observational Study
    (2023) Intagliata, Nicolas M.; Rahimi, Robert S.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera, Fatima; Simonetto, Douglas A.; Farias, Alberto Queiroz; Mazo, Daniel F.; Boike, Justin R.; Stine, Jonathan G.; Serper, Marina; Pereira, Gustavo; Mattos, Angelo Z.; Marciano, Sebastian; Davis, Jessica P. E.; Benitez, Carlos; Chadha, Ryan; Mendez-Sanchez, Nahum; deLemos, Andrew S.; Mohanty, Arpan; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Fortune, Brett E.; Northup, Patrick G.; Patrie, James T.; Caldwell, Stephen H.
    BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis frequently undergo multiple procedures. The risk of procedural-related bleeding remains unclear, and management is not standardized. We conducted an international, prospective, multicenter study of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis undergoing nonsurgical procedures to establish the incidence of procedural-related bleeding and to identify bleeding risk factors. METHODS: Hospitalized patients were prospectively enrolled and monitored until surgery, transplantation, death, or 28 days from admission. The study enrolled 1187 patients undergoing 3006 nonsurgical procedures from 20 centers. RESULTS: A total of 93 procedural-related bleeding events were identified. Bleeding was reported in 6.9% of patient admissions and in 3.0% of the procedures. Major bleeding was reported in 2.3% of patient admissions and in 0.9% of the procedures. Patients with bleeding were more likely to have nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (43.9% vs 30%) and higher body mass index (BMI; 31.2 vs 29.5). Patients with bleeding had a higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score at admission (24.5 vs 18.5). A multivariable analysis controlling for center variation found that high-risk procedures (odds ratio [OR], 4.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.44-8.84), Model for End Stage Liver Disease score (OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.46-3.86), and higher BMI (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10-1.80) independently predicted bleeding. Preprocedure international normalized ratio, platelet level, and antithrombotic use were not predictive of bleeding. Bleeding prophylaxis was used more routinely in patients with bleeding (19.4% vs 7.4%). Patients with bleeding had a significantly higher 28-day risk of death (hazard ratio, 6.91; 95% CI, 4.22-11.31). CONCLUSIONS: Procedural-related bleeding occurs rarely in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis. Patients with elevated BMI and decompensated liver disease who undergo high-risk procedures may be at risk to bleed. Bleeding is not associated with conventional hemostasis tests, preprocedure prophylaxis, or recent antithrombotic therapy.