Browsing by Author "Contreras, Diana"

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    Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia
    (2023) Feliciano, Dirsa; Arroyo, Orlando; Cabrera, Tamara; Contreras, Diana; Torres, Jairo Andres Valcarcel; Zapata, Juan Camilo Gomez
    Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones onEarth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge.Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate tohigh seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country's buildinginventory dates from before the nation's first seismic design code (1984).At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in otherregions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the SabanaCentro province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to thecountry's capital. An exposure model was created combining information fromthe Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the nationalcensus. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the buildingtypes of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and18 earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years weresimulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool toestimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerabilityindex (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the directeconomic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 10 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 14 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 21 % of the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of the region.
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    The drivers of child mortality during the 2012–2016 drought in La Guajira, Colombia.
    (2020) Contreras, Diana; Voets, Alex; Junghardt, Jana; Bhamidipati, Srirama; Contreras, Sandra
    Abstract During the 2012–2016 drought in La Guajira, Colombia, child mortality rates rose to 23.4 out of 1000. Most of these children belonged to the Wayuu indigenous community, the largest and one of the most vulnerable in Colombia. At the municipal level, this study found a significant positive correlation between the average child mortality rate and households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, the number of people without access to health insurance, being part of the indigenous population, being illiterate, lacking sewage systems, living in rural areas, and large households with members younger than 5 years old and older than 65 years old. No correlation was found with households without access to a water source. The stepwise regression analysis showed that households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, no members older than 65 years old, but several children younger than 5 years old, account for 90.4% of the child mortality rate. This study concludes that, if inhabitants had had better incomes or assets, as well as an adequate infrastructure, they could have faced the drought without the observed increase in child mortality.