Browsing by Author "Castro, Sebastian"

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    Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model - case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
    (2024) Cienfuegos, Rodrigo; Alvarez, Gonzalo; Leon, Jorge; Urrutia, Alejandro; Castro, Sebastian
    The occurrence of mega-tsunamis over the last couple of decades has greatly increased the efforts of the research community and practitioners to work hand in hand to reduce risks from these highly destructive threats. Protecting the population through evacuation is the best alternative for avoiding loss of life in the wake of the occurrence of a tsunamigenic earthquake. Therefore, guaranteeing the proper state of evacuation routes is very important to ensuring appropriate movement to the safe zones. This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible evacuation scenarios, considering the actual state of the escape routes of Iquique, a Chilean city prone to tsunamis, with a substantial number of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities, i.e., elements that obstruct or complicate pedestrian flow. The quantification of the delay in evacuation processes resulting from the presence of urban micro-vulnerabilities is carried out through micro-scale agent-based model (ABM) simulations. In addition, these results are integrated with high-resolution tsunami inundation simulations, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the tsunami may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and the decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
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    Children's views on evacuation drills and school preparedness: Mapping experiences and unfolding perspectives
    (2018) Vasquez, Andrea; Marinkovic, Katitza; Bernales, Margarita; Leon, Jorge; Gonzalez, Juan; Castro, Sebastian
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    Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of a seismic risk model for road networks
    (WILEY, 2021) Allen, Eduardo; Chamorro Giné, Marcela Alondra; Poulos, Alan; Castro, Sebastian; Llera Martin, Juan Carlos de la; Echaveguren, Tomas
    Natural hazards may cause significant disruptions to road infrastructure, subsequently affecting road agencies, users, and productive activities. Despite the existence of infrastructure fragilities to seismic hazard and some operational consequences on network mobility, previous research has not modeled risk in terms of traffic disruptions and consequent travel time delays in subduction environments, analyzing the sensitivity to model parameters and quantified model uncertainty. This study proposes a risk framework to evaluate operational consequences in interurban road networks exposed to seismic hazard using travel time delays and propagate uncertainty in the model. Risk values are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations, and uncertainty is propagated using a polynomial chaos expansion meta-model. The framework was applied to a very critical interurban network in central Chile. Results demonstrate that the parameters that most significantly influence risk are fragility, loss of road capacity, and traffic volume.