Browsing by Author "Cabezas, Joaquin"

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    An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study
    (2024) Dunn, Winston; Li, Yanming; Singal, Ashwani K.; Simonetto, Douglas A.; Díaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Ayares, Gustavo; Arnold Alvaréz, Jorge Ignacio; Ayala-Valverde, Maria; Perez, Diego; Gomez, Jaime; Escarate, Rodrigo; Fuentes López, Eduardo; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Morales-Arraez, Dalia; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Ahn, Joseph C.; Buryska, Seth; Mehta, Heer; Dunn, Nicholas; Waleed, Muhammad; Stefanescu, Horia; Bumbu, Andreea; Horhat, Adelina; Attar, Bashar; Agrawal, Rohit; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavaria, Victor; Cuyas, Berta; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Jalal, Prasun K.; Higuera-de-la-Tijera, Fatima; Kulkarni, Anand V.; Rao, P. Nagaraja; Guerra-Salazar, Patricia; Skladany, Lubomir; Kubanek, Natalia; Prado, Veronica; Clemente-Sanchez, Ana; Rincon, Diego; Haider, Tehseen; Chacko, Kristina R.; Romero, Gustavo A.; Pollarsky, Florencia D.; Restrepo, Juan C.; Toro, Luis G.; Yaquich, Pamela; Mendizabal, Manuel; Garrido, Maria L.; Marciano, Sebastian; Dirchwolf, Melisa; Vargas, Victor; Jimenez, Cesar; Hudson, David; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Ortiz, Guillermo; Abraldes, Juan G.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese, Marco; Shah, Vijay H.; Bataller, Ramon; Arab, Juan P.
    Background and Aims: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. Approach and Results: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Conclusions: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.
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    Comparison Between Dynamic Models for Predicting Response to Corticosteroids in Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Global Cohort Study
    (WILEY, 2025) Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Díaz Piga, Luis Antonio; Guizzetti, Leonardo; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Arnold, Jorge; Ayares Campos, Gustavo Ignacio; Mortuza, Rokhsana; Mahli, Gurpreet; Islam, Alvi H.; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Singal, Ashwani K.; Elfeki, Mohamed A.; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavarria, Victor; Cots, Meritxell Ventura; La Tijera, Maria Fatima Higuera-De; Abraldes, Juan G.; Al-Karaghouli, Mustafa; Jalal, Prasun K.; Ali Ibrahim, Mohamad; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Goyes, Daniela; Skladany, Lubomir; Havaj, Daniel J.; Sulejova, Karolina; Selcanova, Svetlana Adamcova; Rincon, Diego; Shah, Vijay H.; Kamath, Patrick S.; Arrese, Marco; Bataller, Ramon; Arab, Juan Pablo
    Several dynamic models predict mortality and corticosteroid response in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), yet no consensus exists on the most effective model. This study aimed to assess predictive models for corticosteroid response and short-term mortality in severe AH within a global cohort. We conducted a multi-national study of patients with severe AH treated with corticosteroids for at least 7 days, enrolled between 2009 and 2019. Dynamic models-Lille-4, Lille-7, trajectory of serum bilirubin (TSB), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)-were used to estimate 30- and 90-day mortality. Lille-7 demonstrated the highest accuracy for both 30- and 90-day mortality.
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    Moderate alcohol-associated hepatitis: A real-world multicenter study
    (Springer, 2025) Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Diaz, Luis Antonio; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Munoz, Karen; Caldentey, Vicente; Arnold, Jorge; Ayares, Gustavo; Mortuza, Rokhsana; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Singal, Ashwani K.; Elfeki, Mohamed A.; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Malhi, Gurpreet; Ahmed, Adan; Homsi, Hoomam; Abid, Zinia; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavarria, Victor; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Cuyas, Berta; Cots, Meritxell Ventura; Higuera-De La Tijera, Maria Fatima; Ayala-Valverde, Maria; Perez, Diego; Gomez, Jaime; Abraldes, Juan G.; Al-Karaghouli, Mustafa; Jalal, Prasun K.; Ibrahim, Mohamad A.; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Goyes, Daniela; Skladany, Lubomir; Havaj, Daniel J.; Sulejova, Karolina; Selcanova, Svetlana Adamcova; Rincon, Diego; Chacko, Kristina R.; Restrepo, Juan C.; Yaquich, Pamela; Toro, Luis G.; Shah, Vijay; Arrese Jiménez, Marco Antonio; Kamath, Patrick S.; Bataller, Ramon; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo
    Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a "less severe condition" (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time. Methods:A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009-2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score <= 20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis. Results:We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score <= 20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15-19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22-40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60-1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96-8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27-1.76, p<0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697). Conclusions:Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.
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    Moderate alcohol-associated hepatitis: A real-world multicenter study
    (2025) Idalsoaga Ferrer, Francisco Javier; Diaz, Luis Antonio; Dunn, Winston; Mehta, Heer; Munoz, Karen; Caldentey, Vicente; Arnold, Jorge; Ayares, Gustavo; Mortuza, Rokhsana; Sarin, Shiv K.; Maiwall, Rakhi; Zhang, Wei; Qian, Steve; Simonetto, Douglas; Singal, Ashwani K.; Elfeki, Mohamed A.; Ramirez-Cadiz, Carolina; Malhi, Gurpreet; Ahmed, Adan; Homsi, Hoomam; Abid, Zinia; Cabezas, Joaquin; Echavarria, Victor; Poca, Maria; Soriano, German; Cuyas, Berta; Cots, Meritxell Ventura; Higuera-De La Tijera, Maria Fatima; Ayala-Valverde, Maria; Perez, Diego; Gomez, Jaime; Abraldes, Juan G.; Al-Karaghouli, Mustafa; Jalal, Prasun K.; Ibrahim, Mohamad A.; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Goyes, Daniela; Skladany, Lubomir; Havaj, Daniel J.; Sulejova, Karolina; Selcanova, Svetlana Adamcova; Rincon, Diego; Chacko, Kristina R.; Restrepo, Juan C.; Yaquich, Pamela; Toro, Luis G.; Shah, Vijay; Arrese Jiménez, Marco Antonio; Kamath, Patrick S.; Bataller, Ramon; Arab Verdugo, Juan Pablo
    Background: Severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (sAH) is a well-characterized disease with high short-term mortality. However, there is limited research on those with a "less severe condition" (moderate AH). This study aims to characterize in-depth patients with moderate AH (mAH), including the performance of mortality scoring systems, key prognostic factors, and survival over time. Methods:A multicenter retrospective cohort study (2009-2019) included patients with mAH (MELD score <= 20 at admission). Cox regression and receiver operating characteristic curves with AUC were used for analysis. Results:We included 1845 patients with AH (20 centers, 8 countries) between 2009 and 2019. mAH was defined as a MELD score <= 20 at admission. Twenty-four percent met the criteria for an mAH episode. Patients with mAH tend to be older and have a higher proportion of females, with a median MELD of 17 (15-19), Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) of 33 (22-40), the trajectory of serum bilirubin of 0.83 (0.60-1.21), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of 5 (2.96-8.60). The primary causes of death in mAH included multiple organ failure (34.1%) and infections (16.6%). The cumulative survival rates at 30, 90, and 180 days were 94.3%, 90.4%, and 88.2%, respectively. In multivariable analysis, age was the only significant predictor of 30-day mortality (HR 1.49, 95% CI: 1.27-1.76, p<0.001). Mortality prediction models showed poor performance, with AUC for MELD (0.671), mDF (0.726), trajectory of serum bilirubin (0.733), and NLR (0.697). Conclusions:Patients with moderate AH exhibited a mortality of 11.8% at 6 months, primarily driven by multiple organ failure and infections. These patients also exhibit a different clinical profile compared to those with sAH. Tailored models and therapeutic strategies are needed to improve long-term outcomes in mAH.
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    The case for simplifying and using absolute targets for viral hepatitis elimination goals
    (2021) Razavi, Homie; Blach, Sarah; Razavi-Shearers, Devin; Abaalkhail, Faisal; Abbas, Zaigham; Abdallah, Ayat; Ferreira, Paulo Abrao; Abu Raddad, Laith Jamal; Adda, Danjuma; Agarwal, Kosh; Aghemo, Alessio; Ahmed, Aijaz; Al-Busafi, Said A.; Al-hamoudi, Waleed; Al-Kaabi, Saad; Al-Romaihi, Hamad; Aljarallah, Badr; AlNaamani, Khalid; Alqahtani, Saleh; Alswat, Khalid; Altraif, Ibrahim; Asselah, Tarik; Bacon, Bruce; Bessone, Fernando; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Block, Tim; Bonino, Ferruccio; BranclaoMello, Carlos Eduardo; Browny, Kimberly; Bruggmann, Philip; Brunetto, Maurizia Rossana; Buti, Maria; Cabezas, Joaquin; Calleja, Jose Luis; Batanjer, Erika Castro; Chan, Henry Lik-Yuen; Chang, Henry; Chen, Chien-Jen; Christensen, Peer Brehm; Chuang, Wan-Long; Cisneros, Laura; Cohen, Chari; Colombo, Massimo; Conway, Brian; Cooper, Curtis; Craxi, Antonio; Crespo, Javier; Croes, Esther; Cryer, Donna; de Barros, Fernando Passos Cupertino; Derbala, Moutaz; Dillon, John; Doss, Wahid; Dou, Xiaoguang; Doyle, Joseph; Duberg, Ann-Sofi; Dugan, Ellen; Dunn, Rick; Dusheiko, Geoffrey; El Khayat, Hisham; EI-Sayed, Manal H.; Eshraghian, Ahad; Esmat, Gamal; Mur, Rafael Esteban; Ezzat, Sameera; Falconer, Karolin; Fassio, Eduardo; Ferrinho, Paulo; Flamm, Steven; Flisiak, Robert; Foster, Graham; Fung, James; Garcia-Samaniego, Javier; Gish, Robert G.; Goncales, Fernando; Halota, Waldemar; Hamoudi, Waseem; Hassany, Mohamed; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hay, Susan; Himatt, Sayed; Hoepelman, I. M.; Hsu, Yao-Chun; Hui, Yee Tak; Hunyady, Bela; Jacobson, Ira; Janjua, Naveed; Janssen, Harry; Jarcuska, Peter; Kabagambe, Kenneth; Kanto, Tatsuya; Kao, Jia-Horng; Kaymakoglu, Sabahattin; Kershenobich, David; Khamis, Faryal; Kim, Dong Joon; Kim, Young; Kondili, Loreta A.; KottiliI, Shyamasundaran; Kramvis, Anna; Kugelmas, Marcelo; Kurosaki, Masayuki; Lacombe, Karine; Lagging, Martin; Lao, WaiCheung; Lavanchy, Daniel; Lazarus, Jeffrey, V; Lee, Alice; Lee, Samual S.; Levyl, Miriam; Liakina, Valentina; Lim, YoungSuk; Liu, Shuang; Maddrey, Willis; Malekzade, Reza; Marinho, Rui Tato; Mathur, Poonam; Maticic, Mojca; Mendes Correa, Maria Cassia; Mera, Jorge; Merat, Shahin; Mogawer, Sherif; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Muellhaupti, Beat; Muljono, David; Mostafa, Ibrahim; Nahum, Mendez Sanchez; Nawaz, Arif; Negro, Francesco; Ninburg, Michael; Ning, Qing; Ntiri-Reid, Boatemaa; Nymadawa, Pagbajabyn; Oevrehus, Anne; Ormeci, Necati; Orrego, Mauricio; Osman, Alaa; Oyunsuren, Tsendsuren; Pant, Calvin; Papaevangelou, Vassiliki; Papatheodoridis, George; Popping, Stephanie; Prasad, Papu; Prithiviputh, Rittoo; Qureshi, Huma; Ramji, Alnoor; Razavi-Shearer, Kathryn; Reddy, Rajender; Remak, William; Richter, Clemens; Ridruejo, Ezequiel; Robaeys, Geert; Robert, Stuart; Roberts, Lewis; Roudot-Thoraval, Francoise; Saab, Sammy; Said, Sanaa; Salamat, Amjad; Sanai, Faisal; Sanchez-Avila, Juan Francisco; Schiff, Eugene; Schinazi, Raymond; Sebastiani, Giada; Seguin-Devaux, Carole; Shanmugam, R. P.; Sharara, Ala; Shilton, Sonjelle; Shouval, Daniel; Sievert, William; Simonova, Marieta; Sohrabpour, Amir Ali; Sonderup, Mark; Soza, Alejandro; Spearman, C. Wendy; Steinfurth, Nancy; Sulkowski, Mark; Tan, Soek-Siam; Tanaka, Junko; Tashi, Dhondup; Thein, Hla-Hla; Thompson, Peyton; Tolmane, Ieva; Toy, Mehlika; Valantinas, Jonas; Van de Vijver, David; Velez-Moller, Patricia; Vince, Adriana; Waked, Imam; Wang, Su; Wedemeyer, Heiner; Wong, Vincent; Xie, Qing; Yamada, Seiji; Yang, Hwai-, I; Yesmembetov, Kakharman; Yilmaz, Yusuf; Younossi, Zobair; Yu, Ming-Lung; Yuen, Man-Fung; Yurdaydin, Cihan; Yusuf, Aasim; Zekry, Amany; Zeuzem, Stefan
    The 69th World Health Assembly endorsed the Global Health Sector Strategy for Viral Hepatitis, embracing a goal to eliminate hepatitis infection as a public health threat by 2030. This was followed by the World Health Organization's (WHO) global targets for the care and management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. These announcements and targets were important in raising awareness and calling for action; however, tracking countries' progress towards these elimination goals has provided insights to the limitations of these targets. The existing targets compare a country's progress relative to its 2015 values, penalizing countries who started their programmes prior to 2015, countries with a young population, or countries with a low prevalence. We recommend that (1) WHO simplify the hepatitis elimination targets, (2) change to absolute targets and (3) allow countries to achieve these disease targets with their own service coverage initiatives that will have the maximum impact. The recommended targets are as follows: reduce HCV new chronic cases to <= 5 per 100 000, reduce HBV prevalence among 1-year-olds to <= 0.1%, reduce HBV and HCV mortality to <= 5 per 100 000, and demonstrate HBV and HCV year-to-year decrease in new HCV- and HBV-related HCC cases. The objective of our recommendations is not to lower expectations or diminish the hepatitis elimination standards, but to provide clearer targets that recognize the past and current elimination efforts by countries, help measure progress towards true elimination, and motivate other countries to follow suit.
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    Trajectory of Serum Bilirubin Predicts Spontaneous Recovery in a Real-World Cohort of Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis
    (2022) Parker, Richard; Cabezas, Joaquin; Altamirano, Jose; Arab, Juan Pablo; Ventura-Cots, Meritxell; Sinha, Ashish; Dhanda, Ashwin; Arrese, Marco; McCune, C. Anne; Rowe, Ian A.; Schnabl, Bernd; Mathurin, Phillipe; Shawcross, Debbie; Abraldes, Juan G.; Lucey, Michael R.; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Verna, Elizabeth; Brown, Robert S., Jr.; Bosques-Padilla, Francisco; Vargas, Victor; Louvet, Alexandre; Holt, Andrew P.; Bataller, Ramon
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe condition with poor short-term prognosis. Specific treatment with corticosteroids slightly improves short-term survival but is associated with infection and is not used in many centers. A reliable method to identify patients who will recover spontaneously will minimise the numbers of patients who experience side effects of available treatments.