Browsing by Author "Azevedo, Flavio"

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    Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
    (2022) Breznau, Nate; Rinke, Eike Mark; Wuttke, Alexander; Nguyen, Hung H. V.; Adem, Muna; Adriaans, Jule; Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia; Andersen, Henrik K.; Auer, Daniel; Azevedo, Flavio; Bahnsen, Oke; Balzer, Dave; Bauer, Gerrit; Bauer, Paul C.; Baumann, Markus; Baute, Sharon; Benoit, Verena; Bernauer, Julian; Berning, Carl; Berthold, Anna; Bethke, Felix S.; Biegert, Thomas; Blinzler, Katharina; Blumenberg, Johannes N.; Bobzien, Licia; Bohman, Andrea; Bol, Thijs; Bostic, Amie; Brzozowska, Zuzanna; Burgdorf, Katharina; Burger, Kaspar; Busch, Kathrin B.; Carlos-Castillo, Juan; Chan, Nathan; Christmann, Pablo; Connelly, Roxanne; Czymara, Christian S.; Damian, Elena; Ecker, Alejandro; Edelmann, Achim; Eger, Maureen A.; Ellerbrock, Simon; Forke, Anna; Forster, Andrea; Gaasendam, Chris; Gavras, Konstantin; Gayle, Vernon; Gessler, Theresa; Gnambs, Timo; Godefroidt, Amelie; Groemping, Max; Gross, Martin; Gruber, Stefan; Gummer, Tobias; Hadjar, Andreas; Heisig, Jan Paul; Hellmeier, Sebastian; Heyne, Stefanie; Hirsch, Magdalena; Hjerm, Mikael; Hochman, Oshrat; Hovermann, Andreas; Hunger, Sophia; Hunkler, Christian; Huth, Nora; Ignacz, Zsofia S.; Jacobs, Laura; Jacobsen, Jannes; Jaeger, Bastian; Jungkunz, Sebastian; Jungmann, Nils; Kauff, Mathias; Kleinert, Manuel; Klinger, Julia; Kolb, Jan-Philipp; Kolczynska, Marta; Kuk, John; Kunissen, Katharina; Sinatra, Dafina Kurti; Langenkamp, Alexander; Lersch, Philipp M.; Lobel, Lea-Maria; Lutscher, Philipp; Mader, Matthias; Madia, Joan E.; Malancu, Natalia; Maldonado, Luis; Marahrens, Helge; Martin, Nicole; Martinez, Paul; Mayerl, Jochen; Mayorga, Oscar J.; McManus, Patricia; McWagner, Kyle; Meeusen, Cecil; Meierrieks, Daniel; Mellon, Jonathan; Merhout, Friedolin; Merk, Samuel; Meyer, Daniel; Micheli, Leticia; Mijs, Jonathan; Moya, Cristobal; Neunhoeffer, Marcel; Nust, Daniel; Nygard, Olav; Ochsenfeld, Fabian; Otte, Gunnar; Pechenkina, Anna O.; Prosser, Christopher; Raes, Louis; Ralston, Kevin; Ramos, Miguel R.; Roets, Arne; Rogers, Jonathan; Ropers, Guido; Samuel, Robin; Sand, Gregor; Schachter, Ariela; Schaeffer, Merlin; Schieferdecker, David; Schlueter, Elmar; Schmidt, Regine; Schmidt, Katja M.; Schmidt-Catran, Alexander; Schmiedeberg, Claudia; Schneider, J. Urgen; Schoonvelde, Martijn; Schulte-Cloos, Julia; Schumann, Sandy; Schunck, Reinhard; Schupp, J. Urgen; Seuring, Julian; Silber, Henning; Sleegers, Willem; Sonntag, Nico; Staudt, Alexander; Steiber, Nadia; Steiner, Nils; Sternberg, Sebastian; Stiers, Dieter; Stojmenovska, Dragana; Storz, Nora; Striessnig, Erich; Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin; Teltemann, Janna; Tibajev, Andrey; Tung, Brian; Vagni, Giacomo; Van Assche, Jasper; van der Linden, Meta; van der Noll, Jolanda; Van Hootegem, Arno; Vogtenhuber, Stefan; Voicu, Bogdan; Wagemans, Fieke; Wehl, Nadja; Werner, Hannah; Wiernik, Brenton M.; Winter, Fabian; Wolf, Christof; Yamada, Yuki; Zhang, Nan; Ziller, Conrad; Zins, Stefan; Zoltak, Tomasz
    This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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    The Ideational Approach to Populism: Concept, Theory and Method
    (Routledge, 2019) Hawkins, Kirk A.; Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal; Castanho Silva, Bruno; March, Luke; Grbeša, Marijana; Šalaj, Berto; Wiesehomeier, Nina; Andreadis, Ioannis; Ruth, Saskia P.; Van Hauwaert, Steven M.; Schimpf, Christian H.; Azevedo, Flavio; Anduiza, Eva; Blanuša, Nebojša; Morlet Corti, Yazmin; Delfino, Gisela; Rico, Guillem; Spruyt, Bram; Steenbergen, Marco; Littvay, Levente; Hawkins, Kirk A.; Carlin, Ryan E.; Littvay, Levente; Rovira Kaltwasser, Cristóbal
    Populism is on the rise in Europe and the Americas. Scholars increasingly understand populist forces in terms of their ideas or discourse, one that envisions a cosmic struggle between the will of the common people and a conspiring elite. In this volume, we advance populism scholarship by proposing a causal theory and methodological guidelines – a research program – based on this ideational approach. This program argues that populism exists as a set of widespread attitudes among ordinary citizens, and that these attitudes lie dormant until activated by weak democratic governance and policy failure. It offers methodological guidelines for scholars seeking to measure populist ideas and test their effects. And, to ground the program empirically, it tests this theory at multiple levels of analysis using original data on populist discourse across European and US party systems; case studies of populist forces in Europe, Latin America, and the US; survey data from Europe and Latin America; and experiments in Chile, the US, and the UK. The result is a truly systematic, comparative approach that helps answer questions about the causes and effects of populism.