Browsing by Author "Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier"

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    Big data para la identificación del comportamiento criminal
    (Centro de Políticas Públicas UC, 2019) Wout, Elwin van't; Valenzuela Carvallo, Eduardo; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Pieringer Baeza, Christian Philip; Torres Irribarra, David; Larroulet Philippi, Pilar
    El big data ha revolucionado las ciencias y la industria con su impresionante poder de analizar grandes conjuntos de datos y algoritmos que pueden predecir eventos futuros con una alta precisión. Este capítulo estudiará el uso de herramientas automatizadas para identificar el comportamiento delictual, con el objetivo final de ayudar a la policía en su mejora continua de la gestión eficiente de los recursos gubernamentales para reducir la delincuencia. Se han desarrollado modelos matemáticos que permiten extraer información relevante de una base de datos, que contiene registros de detenciones por las policías e información sociodemográfica sobre los victimarios. El análisis descriptivo presenta los indicadores clave del estado actual de delincuencia en Chile y una tipología del comportamiento criminal. La predicción de detenciones futuras es desafiante: la precisión debe aumentarse, antes de usar los algoritmos en la práctica, especialmente porque una predicción errónea puede resultar en costos sociales demasiados altos. Para completar el estudio, se presenta una discusión sobre los alcances y posibles fuentes de sesgo en la predicción. Por último, se elaboran propuestas sobre cómo mejorar las políticas públicas y la organización policial basada en herramientas de big data.
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    Capital social y cumplimiento de cuarentenas en pandemia : evidencias desde campamentos
    (2021) Leyton Núñez, Alex John; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Gil Mc Cawley, Diego; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Gobierno
    El capital social se ha provisto como un elemento relevante en el cumplimiento de medidas preventivas en salud, incluso en contexto de Pandemia. A partir de esta tesis, es que examino la asociación de tres medidas de capital social y el cumplimiento de cuarentenas como forma de protección frente al COVID-19, en asentamientos informales. Encuentro que la confianza en las autoridades tiene una relación positiva, sin embargo, esta relación se pierde con el tiempo. En tanto, la organización en actividades se comporta de manera negativa y contrariamente a la tendencia vista en población general. La participación en actividades de soporte comunitario adquiere significancia en su asociación con el cumplimiento de cuarentenas a medida que avanza el tiempo de pandemia.
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    The effect of COVID-19 on the economy: Evidence from an early adopter of localized lockdowns
    (2021) Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Valdés, Rodrigo O.; Wagner, Rodrigo
    Background: Governments worldwide have implemented large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing or school closures, to prevent and control the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic. These strategies, implemented with varying stringency, have imposed substantial social and economic costs to society. As some countries begin to reopen and ease mobility restrictions, lockdowns in smaller geographic areas are increasingly considered an attractive policy intervention to mitigate societal costs while controlling epidemic growth. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support these decisions. Methods: Drawing from a rich data set of localized lockdowns in Chile, we used econometric methods to measure the reduction in local economic activity from lockdowns when applied to smaller or larger geographical areas. We measured economic activity by tax collection at the municipality-level. Results: Our results show that lockdowns were associated with a 10%-15% drop in local economic activity, which is twice the reduction in local economic activity suffered by municipalities that were not under lockdown. A three-to-four-month lockdown had a similar effect on economic activity than a year of the 2009 great recession. We found costs are proportional to the population under lockdown, without differences when lockdowns were measured at the municipality or citywide levels. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that localized lockdowns have a large effect on local economic activity, but these effects are proportional to the population under lockdown. Our results suggest that epidemiological criteria should guide decisions about the optimal size of lockdown areas since the proportional impact of lockdowns on the economy seems to be unchanged by scale.
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    The stringency of urban regulation: evidence from Chile
    (2021) González Ugalde, Laura; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Gil Mc Cawley, Diego; Silva, Hugo; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Gobierno
    This work explores the stringency of urban regulation in the Greater Santiago area, measured as the elasticity between property prices and two regulatory variables: maximum allowed FAR and height. A high stringency reveals that regulated levels are far below free-market levels, while a low stringency indi- cates that the two values are closer. I use a rich panel dataset that contains different regulatory variables over time, at a territorially disaggregated level for an important part of the city. I join this database to used housing transaction prices between 2007 and 2018. My results show that the strigency is not statistically different from zero in Santiago. This indicates that construction levels are probably close to what would have been in the absence of regulation. Additionally, when I study heterogeneities within the city, I do not find the stringency changes with accessibility. However, I find that high socioeconomic neighborhoods and those with stricter baseline regulatory variables have higher levels of stringency, although the last is small in magnitude. These results, however, must be interpreted with caution, considering that the analysis is centered on used housing prices –assuming that all could be regarded as land for densification–and not only in land transactions.
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    Worthwhile or not? Estimating the impacts of AI-based recommendation systems on Chile’s school choice system
    (2020) Icaran Sagaceta, Rodrigo Ignacio; Figueroa González, Nicolás Andrés; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Economía
    This paper studies the effects of implementing a recommender system in the context of the Chilean School Choice System. We develop an artificial intelligence-based algorithm for suggesting schools to students. Using these suggestions as input, and conjecturing different levels of acceptance rates by the population, we evaluate the general equilibrium effects of this policy. If, on average, students accepted one suggestion each, this technology could decrease the percentage of non-assigned students by 1.5pp. However, since good schools are a scarce resource, not everyone benefits from this policy. We find minor effects on commuting distances and assigned schools’ SIMCE scores. Also, we show that this technology has small but negative impacts on social welfare from a utilitarian perspective. Our results offer powerful insight for public policy and suggest that the impacts of a recommender system in a context of rival goods may be counterintuitive.
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    Zonas de remodelación : una propuesta de política pública para reducir la segregación residencial : uso conjunto de las zonas de remodelación y del subsidio DS Nº116 como instrumentos de política pública
    (2020) González Prado, Francisco; Asahi Kodama, Kenzo Javier; Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Escuela de Gobierno
    La investigación propone la creación de un reglamento que permita usar en conjunto dos herramientas de política pública existentes para reducir la segregación residencial y la desigualdad en Chile. Las herramientas de política pública analizadas son los artículos de la Ley General de Urbanismo y Construcciones (LGUC) sobre “zonas de remodelación” y el subsidio DS Nº116 sobre proyectos de integración social. Después de analizar ambas herramientas, se evalúa la implementación del uso de ambas políticas de manera conjunta en base a cuatro dimensiones y se analizan los potenciales resultados de su implementación en base a experiencias internacionales.