Browsing by Author "Aiken, Christopher M."

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    Impacts of training wall construction on littoral sedimentation under seasonal flow variability and sea-level rise: A case study of the Magdalena River (Colombia)
    (2023) Torres-Marchena, Cesar A.; Flores, Raul P.; Aiken, Christopher M.
    Training walls to improve navigability at river mouths alter natural sediment transport regimes, occasioning morphological changes in the nearby littoral zone. In addition, harbor channels and shorelines are susceptible to on-going changes in global circulation conditions and large-scale engineering interventions. Here we present a process-based modeling approach to determine the relationship between spatial patterns of erosion and depo-sition, seasonal river discharge, and the geometry of coastal defenses. The study uses the Magdalena River delta as an example, where the redistribution of freshwater and sediments after the construction of the "Tajamar" training wall heralded significant morphological changes in the area. The numerical experiments are used to describe how the erosion and deposition patterns within the estuary and delta of the Magdalena River are linked to the seasonal cycle of the Magdalena River and to the geometry of the hard structures. We demonstrate that the construction of the Tajamar and complementary hard structures would have decreased depositional fluxes in the littoral zone, leading to the observed shoreline retreat and disappearance of an extensive coastal lagoon system. It is shown that an aperture in the training walls may help restore the wetlands without compromising navi-gability. In addition, projected increases in mean sea level are shown to decrease velocities within the lower estuary, potentially causing increased sedimentation within the channel and more complex conditions for the management of safe navigation over the Magdalena River estuary.
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    Incorporating the Connectivity Timescale in Metapopulation Partitioning
    (2020) Aiken, Christopher M.; Navarrete, Sergio A.
    The often complex spatial patterns of propagule dispersal across a metapopulation present a challenge for species management, motivating efforts to represent the connectivity in simpler but meaningful ways. The reduction of complexity may be achieved by partitioning the metapopulation into groups of highly connected patches called "subpopulations." To have relevance for management, these subunits must be defined from ecological or evolutionary principles. The probabilities of dispersal-mediated propagule interchange between sites, commonly organized into a connectivity matrix, entail a timescale that is usually ignored in subpopulation analyses, limiting their utility and possibly leading to misinterpretation and wrong management decisions. Recognition of the essentially dynamical role played by metapopulation connectivity naturally leads to the incorporation of the generational timescale into the partitioning analysis. An algorithm is proposed to determine the subpopulations-both their cardinality and their composition-as a function of the generational timescale and of a limiting probability of connection, illustrated with a novel empirical estimate of mesopelagic connectivity. The proposed framework allows the unambiguous determination of the timescales corresponding to dispersal barriers and the identification of effective ecological units across the spectrum of management-relevant time horizons.
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    Oceanographical-driven dispersal and environmental variation explain genetic structure in an upwelling coastal ecosystem
    (2024) Peluso, Livia; Faundez, Juan; Navarrete, Sergio A.; Broitman, Bernardo R.; Aiken, Christopher M.; Saenz-Agudelo, Pablo
    The seascape comprises multiple environmental variables that interact with species biology to determine patterns of spatial genetic variation. The environment imposes spatially variable selective forces together with homogenizing and diverging drivers that facilitate or restrict dispersal, which is a complex, time-dependent process. Understanding how the seascape influences spatial patterns of genetic variation remains elusive, particularly in coastal upwelling systems. Here, we combine genome-wide SNP data, Lagrangian larval dispersal simulated over a hydrodynamic model, and ocean environmental information to quantify the relative contribution of ocean circulation and environmental heterogeneity as drivers of the spatial genetic structure of two congeneric intertidal limpets, Scurria scurra and S. araucana, along the central coast of Chile. We find that a genetic break observed in both limpet species coincides with a break in connectivity shown by the Lagrangian dispersal, suggesting that mean ocean circulation is an important seascape feature, in particular for S. scurra. For S. araucana, environmental variation appears as a better predictor of genetic structure than ocean circulation. Overall, our study shows broad patterns of seascape forcing on genetic diversity and contributes to our understanding of the complex ecological and evolutionary interactions along coastal upwelling systems.
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    Reactive persistence, spatial management, and conservation of metapopulations: An application to seagrass restoration
    (2023) Aiken, Christopher M.; Navarrete, Sergio A.; Jackson, Emma L.
    Assessing the conditions for persistence of spatially structured populations, especially those that are exploited by humans or threatened by global change, is of critical importance to inform management and conservation efforts. Observations for entire metapopulations are usually incomplete and rarely, if ever, sufficiently long to deduce population persistence from spatial patterns of abundance. Instead, insights based on metapopulation theory are often used for interpreting the demographic trajectories of real populations and for informing management decisions. The classical theoretical tool used to assess conditions for metapopulation persistence is the "invasibility criterion, " which characterizes the asymptotic, or long-term, stability of a small colonizing population. Essentially, when the linear operator governing the metapopulation dynamics of an invasion event has a positive eigenvalue, recovery and resistance to extinction (resilience) are implied. The converse, however, is not necessarily the case-an invasion may grow over multiple generations, even when the eigenvalues indicate that extinction will eventually occur, a situation referred to here as "reactive persistence. " For the management, restoration, and conservation of real metapopulations subject to continual disturbance, this transient behavior is often more relevant than the asymptotic behavior over long time scales. We develop the theoretical tools for assessing reactive persistence, demonstrating how the conditions for asymptotic and reactive persistence differ in both the patch-occupancy models suited to many terrestrial populations and those where local patch extinctions can be disregarded in the dynamics, often suited to marine species. After presenting the mathematical basis for generalizing the invasibility criterion to include reactive persistence, we illustrate how these concepts and tools can be applied in practice, using as a case study the population ecology and restoration of the seagrass Zostera muelleri (Irmisch ex Ascherson, 1867) in the Port of Gladstone in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Australia. It is shown how the analysis of the transient dynamics of the Z. muelleri metapopulation can be used to guide restoration efforts. Moreover, it is demonstrated that these reactive persistence concepts provide a more appropriate basis for site prioritization for restoration interventions than traditional stability analysis.